David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
The Market moved up right at the opening bell on Friday and made steady progress to the upside for the remainder of the session. At the close, the DJIA and Nasdaq100 were up 1.5%, with the S&P gaining 1.7%. Breadth was decidedly positive, 6.5 to 1, on just below average volume. The indices recovered a good bit of what was lost in the prior session. For the week, the DJIA was up 1.3%, the S&P gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq100 was up 0.6%. Despite Thursday’s weak session, near term technicals remain positive with RSI’s between 53 and 59 and ROC(10)’s are positive, but declined in Friday’s session. The DJIA and Nasdaq100
remain above their 200D-SMA, while it still remains a roadblock for the S&P at 1263. The DJIA sees support at 12125 and 12000, with near term resistance at 12231 12284. The S&P did manage to close above its 150D-SMA(1244), and remains above the 50% retracement level of 1236. We should see strong support at the 1220-1225 area. Upside resistance once again is the 200D-SMA at 1263(also a Fibonacci retracement level). The Nasdaq1100 closed above its 50D-SMA and the 50 also crossed above the 200D-SMA. Look for good support near 2280. Resistance on the upside is at 2325 and 2350. The VIX lost a big 13.7% on Friday, to move down to 26.38, once again below 30.
David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
Long term, bias remains to the downside. We are beginning to push up against levels to reverse long term bias. Short term technicals remain positive and a test of recent highs is likely. The S&P continues to suggest upward bias above 1225 and 1236 levels. After the recent 8% + run we may see some consolidation. Near term, volatility continues to remain high and we can expect more extreme swings within the trecent trading range. A couple of key Economic reports scheduled for this week. Future’s at (8:00am) are moderately lower versus fair value.
Major Economic Reports TodayTreasury Budget-2:00pm
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