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Today's Technical Outlook -3/30/2015

Market Summary

David Chojnacki, Market Technician

A disappointing GDP number could not keep equities from opening positive on Friday, as they tried to follow through on Thursday's late rally. There didn't appear to be many players to push the averages in either direction as they languished through most of the session. A late day surge pushed the major indices to small gains. Bio-techs and Tech stocks helped push the NDX to a moderate gain. At the close on Friday, the DJIA moved up 34 points, the S&P was up just 4.8 points, and the NDX adding 0.41%. Breadth was positive, 1.5 to 1, on average volume. This was not reflected in the ARMS index as it finished at 1.76. RSI's remained in the mid 40's. For the week, DJIA and S&P gave up 2.2%, and the NDX lost 2.8%. The indices gave up a good portion of the prior week's gains. The VIX added 15.7% for the week, but still appears mild for the amount of Geo-political and sovereign debt issues around the world. The Middle East is melting down and finally making an impact on oil prices.

Trading Trends

MAJOR INDICES Short term support and resistance level

DJIA

close 17712

SP500

close 2061

N100

close 4332

17700

17838

2055

2069

4328

4350

17635

17937

2041

2070

4325

4352

17500

17800

2035

2080

4311

4375

17481

18000

2028

2090

4305

4392

17323

18250

2025

2100

4300

4400

17250

 

2012

2112

4288

4425

   

2010

2117

4275

4450

   

2000

2125

4271

4475

   

1988

 

4250

4483

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Major Economic Reports Today

Personal Income/Spending-8:30am PCE Prices-8:30am Pending Home Sales-10:00am

Long term technical bias remains positive as the major indices are within striking distance of their recent highs. Chart patterns do detect a 'double top' and we will see how this plays out in the next couple weeks. Last week's weakness began to eat into short term positive bias as the averages are below or flirted with their 50D-SMA's. One year trend-line support is at 4275 for the NDX and at 2035 for the S&P. Near term, technicals turned weaker last week as MACD's moved below signal and some key moving averages were violated. The NDX moved above its 50D-SMA late Friday perhaps signaling some strength building near term. We get more housing data and the Employment Report next week. Geo-political issues remain. Europe is strong in early trade and U.S. Futures are significantly higher.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.