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Today's Technical Outlook-3/23/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Early weakness at the open and then a flat session through most of the remainder of the day. Again the trade was in a narrow technical range. Buyers in the last half hour kept the losses minimal. At the close, the DJIA lost 0.6%, the S&P was down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq100 off just 5.3 points. Breadth was decidedly negative, 3 to 1, on below average volume once again. The last half hour bounce seemed to come when the DJIA was able to hold its 20D-SMA(13033). The DJIA's loss, however, sent its MACD moving back below signal. This was not followed by the other indices, but there was a sharp downturn in the MACD of the S&P. We have now had a 1.2% pullback in the S&P in the last few sessions. RSI's for the DJIA and S&P have come off the recent over-bought condition. The Nasdaq100 RSI remains at 75 and slightly over-bought. ROC(10's) declined
in yesterday's session, but remain positive. The VIX added 2.9% during the session, but was significantly higher earlier in the session. The mixed technical signals may result in some choppy or side-ways action near term. The DJIA continues to find support near its 20D-SMA(13033) and at 13000. Resistance is now at 13125 and 13250. The S&P could not hold the 1400 level but bounced off interim support of 1388. 1388 and 1375 are now near term support. Upside resistance continues to be 1412 and 1425. The Nasdaq100 lost a few points, but remains the leader among the big three indices. Support is now at 2725 and 2712. Resistance becomes 2737 and 2750. Financials and precious metals were weak in the session. Futures are slightly higher versus fair value early this morning.

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