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Today's Technical Outlook-3/26/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After some weakness in the first hour, the Market regained some strength and held into the close. The indices finished mix, as the S&P and DJIA were able to close positive, while the Nasdaq100 lost a few points. At the close, the DJIA added 34 points, the S&P was up 4.3 points, and the Nasdaq100 lost 2.9 points. Breadth was positive, 2.4 to 1, on below average volume. For the week, the S&P gave up 0.4%, the DJIA lost 1.1%, with the Nasdaq100 adding 0.5%. The S&P and Nasdaq100 made new closing highs early in the week, before pulling back some. RSI's moved below 70 for the DJIA and S&P, however, the Nasdaq100 remains at a
strong 75. ROC(10's) remain positive as upside momentum continues. The VIX lost 4.8% on Friday to close at 14.82, but was up slightly on the week. The DJIA continues to find support near its 20D-SMA(13038). There is also support below that level at 13000. Resistance now sets up as 13125 and 13252. The S&P closed the week below 1400, with 1388 looking like fairly good near term support on the downside. Resistance is now at 1409-12 and 1425. The Nasdaq100, the only index finishing positive for the week, continues to lead the Market. Look for support at 2725 and 2712. Resistance is present at 2737 and 2750.

Trading Trends

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Long term, all three major indices maintain fairly good momentum and upside bias. The indices continue above short term moving averages, but a dip below signal for the MACD, in both the DJIA and S&P, will once again need to be monitored. We will watch the charts to see if last week's pullback in the DJIA and S&P is the beginning of a fourth wave correction. It appears that we have more short term upside to test 1425 in the S&P and 2750 in the Nasdaq100. Near term its looks like we may be a little choppy, but technicals remain biased to the upside. Some end of quarter window dressing may give a boost in the near term. A few key economic reports this week, which may impact the Market. Early Futures are higher this morning, pointing to a good open.

MAJOR INDICESShort term support and resistance level

close 13080


close 1397


close 2728

13038 13104 1388 1400 2725 2737
13000 13125 1381 1409 2712 2750
13000 13250 1375 1412 2700 2762
12874 13252 1363 1425 2688 2775
12810 13300 1353 1437 2675 2800
12802 13437 1352 1450 2670 2812
12724   1350 1475 2662 2825
12700   1343   2650  
    1325   2637  

Major Economic Reports Today

Pending Home Sales-10:00am



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