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Today's Technical Outlook-3/28/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

With a decent open, the indices attempted to follow through on Monday's strength. They held Monday's gains and then some, until some weakness in the final hour. Only the Nasdaq100 was able to hold a gain into the close. At the close, the DJIA was off 43.9 points, the S&P losing 3.9 points, and the Nasdaq100 gaining 4.1 points. Breadth was negative, 1.3 to 1, on below average volume. The last hour weakness kept the MACD for the DJIA below signal. Its RSI is also now down to 60, the lowest of the big three. The Nasdaq100 remains at an over-bought 80, while the S&P stands at 66. ROC(10)'s are positive for all three , but declined in the last session. The Nasdaq100 did make a new high once again. Tech equities continue to push the Nasdaq100 to new highs, while some weakness in the Financial sector helped the S&P to shed a few points. The VIX
spiked 9.3% in the session to close at 15.54. It remains at a relatively low level, but needs to be watched as it may signal a consolidation or pullback that is long overdue. Since the start of this latest upswing in October '11, the S&P is up 28.4%, and has gained 12.3% in 2012 alone. The DJIA continues to find support near its 20D(NYSE:SMA) which is currently at 13061. There is some interim support just above that level at 13125. Upside resistance continues to be 13250-52 and 13300. The S&P held the 1412 support level and closed right at that number. We see support here once again(1412), along with 1400. Resistance on the upside can be found at 1425 and 1437-40. The Nasdaq100 made a new high once again, and maintains it leadership among the indices. Resistance can now be found at 2788 and 2800. Support remains at 2775 and 2750. Futures are slightly higher versus fair value early this morning.

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