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Today's Technical Outlook-4/02/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After a move up at the open, the averages quickly pulled back in the next half hour. Late morning saw the indices begin to recover and by the close, we had a mixed finish. At the close, the DJIA was up 0.5%, the S&P gained a small 0.37%, and the Nasdaq100 gave up 0.25%. Breadth was positive, 1.4 to 1, on average volume. For the week, the S&P added 0.7%, the DJIA gained 1%, and the Nasdaq100 adding 0.9%. The S&P and Nasdaq100 made new closing highs last Monday and then pulled back slightly the remainder of the week. There was some technical range trading during most of the week. RSI's have come down and most of the over-
bought condition has been relieved. ROC(10's) have also declined indicating the loss of momentum after Monday's big day. We also saw a little more near term weakness in the Nasdaq100, which may spill over to the DJIA and S&P. The VIX was up slightly on the week, but remains at relatively low levels. The DJIA continues to find support near its 20D-SMA(13089). There is also support below that level at 13000. Resistance now sets up as 13250-52 and 13300. The S&P held the 1400 level and has found support at 1397 several times during the week. Additional support is at 1391 and 1388. Resistance is at 1416 and 1425. For the Nasdaq100 support at 2737 and 2725. Resistance at 2775.

Trading Trends

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Long term, upside bias remains intact for all three major indices. Short term we begin to get some caution with the declining MACD signal. We remain above short term moving averages, but some indication that we may be seeing more sideways action here. We will watch the charts to see if the weakness leads to a fourth wave correction. Near term it looks like the choppiness continues as we trade within technical ranges. Again the next several trading days may be key in determining if we get the overdue pullback. Some key economic reports this week, including the Employment Report at the end of the holiday shortened week. Early Futures are slightly lower to flat this morning.

MAJOR INDICESShort term support and resistance level

close 13212


close 1408


close 2755

13153 13250 1400 1400 2750 2762
13125 13252 1397 1409 2737 2775
13089 13300 1391 1412 2705 2782
13000 13437 1388 1416 2700 2788
12941 13500 1375 1425 2688 2800
12810 13625 1363 1437 2675 2812
12724   1353 1450 2662 2825
12700   1350 1475 2650  
    1343   2637  

Major Economic Reports Today

ISM Index-10:00am Factory Orders-10:00am



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