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Today's Technical Outlook-4/4/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The Market opened to the upside, but couldn't hold the gains into the PM. The weakness accelerated after the FOMC statement, but a last hour reversal kept the indices little changed. At the close, the DJIA was off 0.49%, the S&P losing 5.6 points, and the Nasdaq100 off just 1.6 points. Breadth was negative, 2 to 1, on below average volume. The indices held key near term technical levels yesterday and managed to close off their lows. MACD's remain below signal and this remains a concern as the indices have traded in a narrow range since mid-March. RSI's remain fairly strong and ROC(10's) continue positive for the big three. The extended rally and mixed near term signals keeps us cautious near term. We also saw Japanese candlestick reversal signals develop in yesterday's session. The sideways action over the last few weeks may be the fourth wave of this rally that began in October 2011. We will continue to look for confirmation of this. The DJIA continues to find support at its 20D-SMA and did so intra-day in yesterday's session. The 20D-SMA stands at 13126. There is additional support at 13000. Upside resistance is now at 13250 and 13264. The S&P closed off the recent high, but held the 1412 support level at the close. There is additional support below at 1397-1400. Resistance now stands at 1419 and 1425-30. The Nasadq100 neared the 2800 level in yesterday's action, but at the close was off slightly. There is some resistance at 2788 and also at 2800. Support is now at 2775 and 2750. The VIX has now closed in a very narrow range for the last six sessions. It has had some volatile intra-day activity. It currently stands at 15.66. Early futures are indicating a significantly weak open this morning.

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