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Today's Technical Outlook - 7/29/2016

Market Summary

David Chojnacki - Market Technician

Prices moved lower at the open, but stayed mostly flat through the morning hours. Earnings reports were mixed as were economic numbers. The Major indices got a little juice after the noon hour and rose slowly into the close. By the end of the session the indices were near their highs of the day, but a last minute pull back kept them off their highs. The averages finished mixed and little changed on poor volume. At the close, the DJIA was down 15.9 points, the S&P added 3.4 points, and the NDX gained 18.5 points. Breadth was slightly positive, on weak volume. ROC(10)'s declined, with the DJIA crossing into negative territory. RSI's were little changed, ranging from a low of 60 for the DJIA to 71.6 for the NDX. We have seen recent weakness in the Dow and an over-bought level developing in the NDX. This was also noticed in the MACD, as the DJIA crossed below its signal. The SPX and NDX continued to remain above signal. The ARMS index finished the day at 1.09, slightly bearish. The DJIA is now down in 5 of the last 6 sessions, though all small losses. Most of the weakness in the DJIA is coming in the Energy sector, where oil has been moving lower. Though the DJIA has been weak lately, it manages to hold above its 20D-SMA of 18316. The NDX has been doing better lately as Semi's , Tech and BIO's have been stellar performers. The NDX is now only 18 points from its 2015 high of 4739. Barring any major market disruptions we would expect it to test that level. The NDX holds comfortably above its 20D-SMA of 4576. The SPX has been developing a long 'Bull Handle", poised for another breakout to the upside. It holds the 2130-34 level and its20D-SMA of 2145. The VIX fell just 0.11 of a point to 12.72. Near term support for the NDX is at 4675 and 4650. Near term resistance is at 4725 and 4739. Near term support for the SPX is at 2162 and 2150. Near term resistance is at 2175 and 2187. Europe is slightly lower in early trade. US Futures are lower in the pre-market.

Major Economic Reports Today

GDP-8:30am Employment Cost Index-8:30am Chicago PMI-9:45am Mich Sentiment-10:00am

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