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Today's Technical Outlook - 8/11/2016

Market Summary

David Chojnacki - Market Technician

The market opened flat and traded sideways in a narrow range until oil started to fall after the release of inventories. Equities followed oil prices and the major indices hit some technical support levels before buyers finally stepped in. The PM trade was mostly sideways with another brief sell-off after 2 PM. BY the final bell, the indices ended little changed, but to the downside. Volume picked up somewhat from the prior session. At the close, the DJIA was down 37.3 points, the SPX slipped 6.2 points, and the NDX falling 12.3 points. Breadth was slightly negative, 1.3, on below average volume. ROC(10)'s declined in the session, but remained in positive territory. RSI's were slightly lower, with the NDX finishing just below 70, at 69.9. The DJIA and SPX are near 60. The DJIA and SPX remain with their MACD below signal, while the NDX continues above signal. The ARMS index finished the day at 1.28, slightly bearish. The trading was slow again, only excited by falling oil and the indices testing some near term technical levels. The DJIA closed just 13 points above its 20D-SMA of 18482. The SPX tested the 2175 support level, traded below, but then closed right at that level. The SPX traded as low as 2172, which is 3 points above its 20D-SMA of 2169. 2187 continues to be the near term target, with 2229 the 38% Fibonacci target. We may see some more sideways action before equities move higher. The NDX is trading just below its recent highs and was slightly over-bought and needs to consolidate in order to get another run at the highs. It continues above its 2015 high of 4739. The VIX added 3.3% to finish at 12.05. It has come off its lows, but still remains fairly docile. Near term support for the NDX is at 4775 and 4750, 4739. Near term resistance is at 4800 and 4825. Near term support for the SPX is at 2175 and 2168, 2162. Near term resistance is at 2187 and 2200. Europe is higher this morning in early trade. US Futures are higher in the pre-market.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am Export/Import Prices-8:30am NatGas Inv.-10:30am

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