The Market opened weak and then sold off rather heavily after consumer confidence numbers. At the close, the DJIA was down .9%, the S&P500 down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq100 off 1.3%. We continue to pull back after recent bounce. We may at least test 1080 on the S&P500. All three indices closed just near or below their 50D-EMA. The indices remain above some important support levels and their 200D-EMA, however the DJIA dropped just below the 50% retracement level of 10355. We remain near a congestion area and may become range bound short term. The Financials (XLF), which have been strong lately, also lost 1.8% to close at 14.38. Moving back into the 14.00-14.50 trading range. Support now at 14.30, 14.15, and 14.00. Resistance now at 14.40, 14.50, 14.60, 14.75, and 15.00. GOLD(GLD) moved lower again closing down 1% to 107.89. It broke below its 50D-SMA and is sitting right near its 20 and 50D-EMA. There is some support near 107.00. The VIX jumped to the upside, 7.1% to 21.37.
Long term, after retracing over 50% of recent correction, the Market is having difficult time getting through a congestion area. Short term, bias had reversed to the upside, but we are right near congestion area. Near term, we reversed at resistance and some additional pullback looks likely. Today’s futures(at 8:15am) are slightly higher versus fair value. Economic growth indicators and U.S. Treasury funding have become the new key Market movers.
Major Economic Reports Today:
New Home Sales-10:00am Crude Inventories-10:30am
MAJOR INDICES- Short term support and resistance levels.
DJIA-(close 10282) SP500-(close 1094) N100-(close 1793)
S R S R S R
10273 10283 1085 1095 1783 1797
10262 10355 1080 1099 1775 1798
10200 10500 1070 1100 1758 1800
10150 10540 1059 1108 1742 1812
10000 10581 1051 1115 1735 1820
9942 10650 1120 1730 1830
9925 10725 1130 1840
9850 1131 1845
9813 1135 1850
"The prevailing sentiment in recent sessions in the options market has been "range bound" and the action in the VIX (Volatility Index) confirms this. Since peaking and trading briefly above the 29.00 level during the first week of February, the VIX fell sharply to the sub 20 levels on Monday. Yesterday, however the VIX began to climb again following consumer confidence news headlines, and we saw buyers of the VIX March 25-30-35 call butterfly, positioning for near term increased volatility"
VIX(Volatility Index) –Closed 21.37. Has bounced off the 20 area several times in recent months. Resistance on upside at 22.50 and 24.00.
IWM-(Ishares Russell 2000) Corrected down 1% to 62.51 after a good run up. A buy if we hold this level.
UUP(Powershares U.S. Dollar)- Closed at 23.81. Moved back above 23.70, but on weak volume. A buy if it can hold that level. Watch out for whipsaw action as we continue to dance around important levels. The UDN(Powershares Dollar Bearish) has been displaying good support at 26.50.
Disclosure: No positions
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