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StreetOne Technical Analysis, LLC Market Summary-04/26/2010

|Includes: FXE, GLD, IAU, IYJ, SGOL, VIS, Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), XLI

 Another choppy session, but strength in the PM pushed the major indices to new highs.  At the close, the DJIA was up 0.6%, the S&P500 up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq100 up 0.5% for the fourth straight session. Breadth was positive, 5 to 2 on the NYSE, with weaker volume in the DJIA and S&P, but above average in the Nasdaq100. For the week the DJIA was up 1.6%, the S&P500 up 2%, and the Nasdaq100 up 2.1%. In addition to the three major indices making new highs, the Dow Transports and the Russsells’ were also in new territory.  The DJIA crossed over its 200 week SMA, while the S&P500 is just below(the Nasdaq100 crossed in Sept. of 09). Near term support remains at 1200 and 2025 for the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. Next upside resistance remains at 1225 and 11254 areas(Fibonacci levels), for the S&P500 and DJIA respectively. The Nasdaq100 remains above the bottom line of its longer term upside channel(13 month). The Nasdaq100 is right at the upper limit of an importance resistance area: 2035-2055. The Financials (XLF), up .05 to 16.78.  Support now 16.75, 16.50, 16.30, 16.20, 16.00, 15.85, 15.70 and 15.50.  Resistance is now at 16.90, 17.00 and 17.15. GOLD(GLD) made a big push through 112 and closed up 1.2% to 113.19. Some resistance near 113.50 to 114, but a move through here could take it to test Dec 09 highs. Remains a buy above the 112 level.  The VIX closed up 0.9% to 16.62. 

 

Trading Trend

Long term, technicals remain positive as we remain at or near recent highs. Short term, upside bias remains as we make new highs.  Near term, though action was choppy, we moved through the recent highs.  The major indices are slightly over bought again, both short term and long term. The three major indices are right near important resistance areas.  Earning’s season continues this week.  Some Market impacting economic reports this week.  Today’s futures(at 8:15am) are slightly higher versus fair value.  Economic recovery confirmation(e.g.-employment, consumer spending) and interest rates have become the key Market movers.

 

Major Economic Reports Today:

No major reports scheduled.   

 

MAJOR INDICES - Short term support and resistance levels

DJIA-(close 11204)

SP500-(close 1217)

N100-(close 2055)

11170

11215

1215

1222

2055

2063

11125

11254

1213

1225

2050

2065

11095

11325

1203

1237

2040

2075

11006

11415

1200

1250

2035

2087

11000

11500

1192

1263

2025

2100

10800

 

1188

1275

2012

 

10798

 

1175

 

2000

 

10789

 

1165

 

1988

 

10725

 

1163

 

 

 

 

Options/Derivative Flows

In XLI (SPDR Industrials), options flows have turned from bearish to bullish recently. In previous recaps we highlighted downside put buyers in various months but last week there were large June 33 call buyers, with nearly 200,000 contracts purchased. XLI is up over 19% this year and trading at 52 week high levels. In FXE (Rydex Euro Currency Trust) a bearish looking put butterfly was bought, the 132/130/128 strikes specifically in May in good size. Separately, January 115/110 put spreads were bought and options buyers seem to be positioning for continued weakness in the ETF which is down almost 7% year to date and flirting with new 52 week lows. XLF (SPDR Financials) options have been no strangers to this report recently, and the trend continues to involve bearish/protective flow. Buyers of June 15 puts and sellers of June 18 calls in the June 15 put / 18 call risk reversals were around last week as well as assorted May put buyers.

 

Trade Ideas

XLI(SPDR Sel Industrial) Closed 33.12. Brokeout to new high above 32.62. Similar trade VIS(Vanguard INDL) and IYJ(iShares industrial)

GLD-(SPDR Gold Trust)-Closed 113.19. Remains a buy above 112. Similar trade IAU(iShares Gold Trust). SGOL(OTC:ETFS)- Closed at 115.37. A buy above 115

S1F In the News: http://www.streetonefinancial.com/news.html.

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Disclosure: No positions