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Today's Technical Outlook-6/8/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The Market moved to the upside at the open, but quickly lost momentum and began a slow sell-off. The selling accelerated in the last hour, leaving the indices to finish mixed. At the close, the DJIA was up 0.37%, the S&P losing 0.14 of a point, and the Nasdaq100, the weakest in the session, giving up 0.43%. Breadth was slightly negative, 1.2 to 1, on just below average volume. RSI's remain in the mid 40's. ROC(10's) were mixed; the DJIA is negative and rising, the S&P negative and declining, and the Nasdaq100 positive and rising. The indices traded in a narrow range with little conviction of establishing a bias. Near term technicals have improved, with MACD's now above signal for the Nasdaq100 and the S&P and stronger RSI's. We remain above the 150D-SMA in the Nasdaq100(2508), but below in the S&P(1320). All three averages closed right near, but just below their 20D-SMA. Look for the 20D-SMA's to continue to act as near term resistance. The weakness in the Nasdaq100 yesterday, kept it from improving its short term technicals and reversing the bias to the upside. The Nasdaq100 will see resistance at 2538(20D-SMA), 2541(Fibonacci level) and at 2550. Support can be found at 2525 and 2512. The S&P closed just below its 150D-SMA(1320), its 20D-SMA(1316) and its Fibonacci level of 1320. These levels will act as resistance to the upside, along with 1325. Look for the S&P to find support at 1312 and 1294. The DJIA is finding resistance at its 20D-SMA(12476) and at 12587(50D-SMA). Look for support at 12400 and 12300. The VIX lost 1.9% to close at 21.72. It is now back in the lower end of the recent range, which has been 21 to 25, with a brief spike to 27. Futures this morning are lower versus fair value.

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