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Today's Technical Outlook-6/13/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

A mid-morning and late day push to the upside, allowed the indices to recover most of the losses suffered in the prior session. We traded in a narrow range and closed near the highs of the day. At the close, the DJIA added 1.3%, the S&P gained 1.1%, and the Nasdaq100 was up 1.1%. Breadth was positive, 4 to 1, on below average volume. RSI's are near or just below 50 and ROC(10's) are positive and rising. Near term strength increased in the session and once again we make a play to reverse the short term downside bias. MACD's remained above signal indicating the increase in short term strength. All three indices moved back above their 20D-SMA's. The S&P and Nasdaq100 are above their 150D-SMA, with the DJIA just below. The S&P closed right in the 1319 to 1325 area where we have found resistance in prior sessions. Above this level there is resistance near 1337 and 1340. Look for the support to be near 1312 and 1300. The Nasdaq100 remained above its 150D-SMA(2512), and closed just above the .38 Fibonacci retracement level of 2542. With the 20D-SMA now at 2528, look for that level and 2512 to provide near term support. Upside resistance lies at 2550 and 2575. The DJIA remained below its 150D-SMA(12598) and below its 20D-SMA(12440). These levels will act as near term resistance. Support for the DJIA can be found at 12400 and 12299(200D-SMA). The VIX was off 6.2%, to close at 22.09. It remains in the moderately volatile area and continues in the 21 to 25 range, which is reflected in the recent choppy action. Today we have the Retail Sales and PPI reports before the bell, which should give some color to the economy. Futures prior to the report are just slightly lower than fair value.

Major Economic Reports Today

Retail Sales-8:30am PPI-8:30am Business Inventories-10:00am Crude Inventories-10:30am

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