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Today's Technical Outlook-7/19/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The Market was up right from the open, following through on the prior session's strength. By the end of the session, the major averages recorded healthy gains on the day. At the close, the DJIA was 0.8%, the S&P gained 0.67%, and the Nasdaq100 moving 1.3%. Breadth was positive, 1.7 to 1, on average volume, but a slight pickup from the prior session. Near term technicals have now improved dramatically, since we are up 3 of the last four sessions. RSI's are now in the upper 50's to 60 and ROC(10's) are rising for all three indices, however, the Nasdaq100 remains negative. While the S&P had seen its MACD positively cross signal several sessions ago, the DJIA and Nasdaq100 have now joined the major index. The Nasdaq100 moved above its 50% retracement level(2621) and along with the other major averages moving to test the recent highs. For the Nasdaq100, that high is 2660, which is also the Fibonacci 61% retracement level. The S&P moved through that level today, when it crossed 1365. The recent high for the S&P and DJIA is 1375 and 12961, respectively. The S&P has moved right up to the top of the recent range(1375) and pulled back in yesterday's session. We closed just below. 1375 will once again provide resistance for the S&P along with the 1388 level. Above 1375 and the S&P may gain the momentum to test the April high of 1419. Look for 1365-63 and 1348 to provide near term support. The question this week is whether we get the fundamental news from earnings or economic reports to propel us out of the trading range. Options expire this week and may impact the end of the week trade. The VIX moved down 1.9% to close at 16.16. It suggests little downside fear is in the Market. Futures are up versus fair value this morning.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am Existing Home Sales-10:00am Phila Fed-10:00am Leading Indicators-10:00am

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