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Today's Technical Outlook-7/20/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Another session of narrow trading, but near term technicals continue to improve as the major indices try to move through recent highs. We are now up 4 of the last 5 sessions. At the close, the DJIA was up 34 points, the S&P adding 3.7 points, and the big winner, the Nasdaq100 up a strong 1.1%. Breadth was disappointing, as it was barely positive, on average volume. The DJIA and Nasdaq100 closed just below their recent highs of 12961 and 2660, respectively. The S&P closed just barely above the 1375 level, and struggled near that area all session. As noted, near term technicals have improved as RSI's are near 60 and ROC(10's) are all positive and rising. The breadth in yesterday's session was weak. While Techs had another good session, Financials did not participate and it's difficult to foresee us having a strong short term upside move without their participation. We have moved into an area above key Fibonacci retracement levels which suggest there is further strength to the upside. For the Nasdaq100, the recent high is 2660, which is also the Fibonacci 61% retracement level. It closed yesterday at 2655, just several points below. Watch the 2660 level for resistance in today's session. Support on the downside should be found at 2650 and 2621. As noted earlier, the S&P closed one point above its recent high of 1375. Further upside momentum is possible if we hold that level today. Look for 1385-88 to provide some near term resistance. Support can be found at 1363-65 and 1353. The VIX closed down 1.9% to 16.16. We did notice a pick-up yesterday in the put to call ratio for the S&P index. No major economic reports today, but last night's earnings reports seem to be negatively impacting Futures this morning. Remember that today is last day to trade options.

Major Economic Reports Today

No Reports scheduled



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