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Today's Technical Outlook-7/25/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

More negative headlines out of Europe and disappointing revenues sent the Market to another poor start. The indices couldn't find any traction during the session and slowly moved to the downside throughout the day. A report 10 minutes before the bell, touting the Fed may do more easing, sent prices spiking up and off their lows of the day. At the close, the DJIA was down 0.8%, the S&P lost .9%, and the Nasdaq100 off .89%. Breadth was decidedly negative once again, 2.9 to 1, on average volume. Near term technicals continued to deteriorate and began to effect short term neutrality. RSI's moved down to the mid 40's and ROC(10's) declined, with the Nadsaq100 going negative. The continued pullback is weakening short term technicals, as MACD's have moved below signal for all three major indices. They have all remained below their 20D-SMA's, but held their 50D-SMA. The DJIA just barely held the 50D-SMA(12608). It has support there(50D) and at 12507(200D-SMA). Resistance on the upside is at 12724 and 12741. The Nasdaq100 closed at 2567, just 3 points above its 50D-SMA. Look for support at the 50D level and further below at 2550 and 2525. Look for upside resistance at 2588 and 2600. We see continued weakness for the Nasdaq100 below 2621. We are now within striking distance of the lower end of our trading range which is the 200D-SMA. Apple's disappointing earnings will impact the Nasdaq100 at the open today. The S&P closed below its 150D-SMA(1344) and approached the lower end of its trading range yesterday. There is fairly good support at 1325 and then again at its 200D-SMA(1315). On the upside, we see resistance at 1344-48 area and 1353. The VIX spiked up 9.9% to close at 20.47. Futures mixed this morning with the Nasdaq100 down and the S&P and DJIA up slightly.

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