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Today's Technical Outlook 7/26/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

While Apple earnings weighed on the Nasdaq100 index, the DJIA and S&P got off to a positive start. After 15 minutes the DJIA and S&P peaked and began a methodical progression to the negative side. There was a little up and down action in the remainder of the session and the indices finished mixed. At the close, the DJIA added .47%, the S&P gave up 0.42 of a point, and the Nasdaq100 dropped 0.7%. Breadth was slightly positive, 1.1 to 1, on average volume. RSI's remained in the mid 40's and ROC(10's) advanced in the session. It was a ho-hum session, considering that AAPL, a member of several indices and widely held, was losing 4.3%. While the loss was reflected in the Nasdaq100, the index did test at one point its longer term up-sloping trend-line and managed to hold that level. We see this as a positive sign. MACD's continued below signal for all three major indices. The DJIA held its 50D-SMA(12608) once again, while the Nasdaq100 fell below its 50D-SMA(2564). The DJIA should continue to see support at its 50D-SMA. Upside resistance remains at 12724 and 12741. The Nasdaq100 closed at 2567, just 3 points above its 50D-SMA. Look for support at the 50D level and further below at 2550 and 2525. Look for upside resistance at 2588 and 2600. We see continued weakness for the Nasdaq100 below 2621. We are now within striking distance of the lower end of our trading range which is the 200D-SMA. The S&P was nearly flat on the session, but did hold its 50D-SMA(1333). It remains below the 50% retracement level(1348) which is key to getting its bias back to the upside. Look for near term support at 1333 and 1325 and upside resistance at 1348 and 1363. The VIX closed below 20 at 19.34. Futures up significantly this morning on European ECB comments, however, no fundamentals have changed.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am Durable Orders-8:30am Pending Home Sales-10:00am

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