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Today's Technical Outlook-8/3/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Little action by the ECB disappointed the Street and the Market fell right from the open. An attempt to move the Market to the upside late morning failed, and only a late pm rally kept the indices off their lows. It was the fourth straight losing session for the Market, as the Knight Capital glitch continued to roil through the industry. At the close, the DJIA lost 0.7%, the S&P gave up .75%, and the Nasdaq100 seeing .36% slip away. Breadth was negative, 1.7 to 1, on a rise in volume. RSI's weakened again, but ROC(10's) rose, as near term technicals weakened. Short term bias remains to the upside as we remain above key Fibonacci levels. The S&P closed right at its .61 Fibonacci retracement level, and the Nasdaq100 closed above its 50% level. The DJIA and S&P have not been able to hold the new recent highs established and have pulled back below breakout levels. For the S&P, 1375 will once again present resistance on the upside. Downside support, near term, is 1363-65 and 1353. Not much change in support and resistance levels for the Nadsaq100 and the DJIA. We will be looking for a catalyst to move us back to new recent highs, or the headline to pull the market down to its 200D-SMA which has been holding up on the downside. There was a spike downward in the VIX, which was surprising, giving the action of the Market. The VIX was down 7.3% to close at 17.57. This morning we have the Employment Report which will drive the open. Over-night markets in Europe are showing healthy gains and may spill over into our Market should there be no surprise in the Employment Report. Futures are significantly higher in early trading, pointing to a positive open this morning.



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Major Economic Reports Today

Employment Report-8:30am ISM Services-10:00am