The present oil scenario is marked with two divergent situations. The conventional oil demand network countries are gradually recovering from the long recession. This will add to the demand for oils already on the boil caused by the rapidly growing demand for oil by the fast growing countries of China and India. On the other hand the political turmoil in Arab countries Tunisia, Egypt, Libya is growing but not flaring up for long. There is likelihood of oil supply be under pressure. Analysts worldwide are speculating of oil crisis to deepen soon if any other major oil producing country such Iran joins the turmoil. We have already witnessed a surge in oil price recently from 19th February 2011, which is dangerous for the global economy as a whole.The present oil scenario is marked with two divergent situations.
Will this turmoil continue unabated, spread to other oil producing countries or calm down in the new future? This is a vital question to be answered before answering the question ‘Whither Oil Price’? According the model Solar Functional Energy’ model oil producing countries OPEC network at present are under pressure but temporarily should be relieved of the pressure. Many OPEC members and non-OPEC courtiers are likely to increase their exploration and compensate the shortfall of supply registered at present. The relief can be seen from 4th March that may be reinforced from 14th March 2011. Crude oil prices which might get some more weight till 3rd March that may touch around $110 to $115 per barrel (Brent) may subside very quickly thereafter to touch $86 by the middle of April 2011. If the turmoil in Libya ends by middle of March which is likelihood price may tread down faster.
Let us hope for the best!