India week ahead - 25th - 30th April 2011
Jose Koshy's Blog
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009
Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
This week the market was up 1.1 %, was very volatile and tested the 5700 before moving up yet again. The markets started off weak with the S&P downgrading US to negative from stable, not sure why it took them this long. The markets quickly covered the fall and moved up globally. The loose money is driving all asset bubbles globally. This can go on for as long as loose money policy is being practiced by central bankers. We had the food inflation coming at 8.78 % last week; this is still ahead of the comfort zones. The SBI has finally decided to up the base Interest rate by 25 basis points. The result season has come as a mixed bag. Infosys came badly but TCS & HCL has come better than expected..
This week the Indian markets will watch the rest of the results and the derivative settlement, we expect markets to be very volatile. Globally too, there are a lot of results coming in. Monday will also see the reaction to reliance results, which has been under some pressure. On the political side, the eyes will be on the CBI charge sheet on 2G scam and all eyes are on the DMK family. This can cause a level of un ease to the ruling political class.
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 145280 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.26 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 22 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a premium of 16 points to spot. There is confusion and indecision amongst traders.
Nifty on 21st April: 5884
Nifty trading ideas for the week: Sideways..Do not trade. A break > 5930 can set a move upwards.
Stock ideas for the Week: None
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