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India week ahead - 11th - 17th July 2011

|Includes: EEM, WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI), IFN
This week Indian markets moved up 0.5 % in a volatile week, the FII’s have been on a roll in July with Rs 5500 Crores worth of buying. The US Job data came in bad with just 18000 additions in June, this hit global market on Friday fearing a big slowdown. The loose money regime in the US has come to an end temporarily and now the law makers are debating to increase the debt limit in the US. The food inflation in India dropped to 7.6 % is a healthy sign from the double digit inflation that we saw some months back. The Indian governments scare with all the scams are forcing politicians & bureaucrats not to take any decisions on important matters affecting investments. This will force the economy to slowdown in the near future affecting job creation and growth.
This week the Indian & global markets will look up to the result season to see if there is expansion in margin and growth. We have Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, Essar oil announcing results. On the global front we have Alcoa, Citibank, Google, JP Morgan, and Intel announcing results. The Indian market will also keep a close eye on the IIP data for May that comes out on 11th. Technically markets are not able to move > 200 day moving average, the Thursday breakout seem like a fake to trap the edgy traders.
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 122115 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.30 the option IVs for Calls at 16 % & Puts at 17 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a premium of 7 points to spot.
Nifty on 8th July: 5657
Nifty trading ideas for the week: Range Trading, 5720 – 5580, a bias to break the range on the lower side is highly possible.
Stock ideas for the Week: Sell HDIL @ Rs 175 Target: Rs 160 SL: Rs 181