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India week ahead - 14th - 20th Nov 2011

|Includes: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), EPI, IFN
Last week the Indian markets moved down by 2.1 %, the IIP data for Sept came at the lowest level. Inflation and the higher interest rates are affecting growth. The global markets were highly volatile with the Greece & Italy debt & austerity back in focus.  Both the prime minters have resigned giving way to pass some tough austerity measures in these countries. We did see the markets giving a heads up to this move. The US markets went up by 1.4 % on the back of some good no’s on the retail front. On the currency front the Rupee continue to weaken against the $ on global fears, this is driving up cost of all imports especially Crude. The uncertain phase in the markets will continue and will favor investors in the long term. Traders are finding it difficult to call market directions.
This week the Indian markets will continue to look for global cues and will eye the weekly inflation nos. Technically markets are trading < 5200, which brings in some short term weakness.
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 125544 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.29 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 25 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a 30 point premium to spot.
Nifty on 11th Nov 2011: 5169
Nifty trading ideas for the week: Sell on a move to 5200 – Target : 5080 Stop Loss: 5230
Stock ideas for the Week: Sell ICICI around < Rs 820 for a Target of Rs 780 SL: 840
Happy & safe trading