Last week the Indian markets moved up 0.2 %, the confusion over GARR and the finance ministry's unconvincing clarification kept the market on the edge. On Friday the market moved up smartly and squeezed the shorts. The liquidity flow seems to be on a high, so markets will not see any major correction just yet. The EU has upped their arsenal of liquidity and the US too has talked up the market. The RBI in India came to the rescue of Bonds by buying close to Rs 10000 Crs on Friday easing yields sharply. The FII's have been net buyers of Rs 5500 Crs through March. The balance sheets of most economies in developed world has gone up by 2 - 3 times in 3 years all thanks to the the excessive liquidity being flooded into the market. There has been no major run up in the economy in these markets. Only time will tell us, when the runaway inflation will hit the global markets. The party will continue till the governments in the developed markets hold on to the money printing machine.
This week the India market will have a 3 day trading and so can expect tepid volumes, we have the auto & cement numbers coming in, which is expected to be good despite the excise increase. The quarterly nos. should start to flow in from 9th April, so we can have a +ve run up to the events. The US have a fabulous 15 % increase in Jan - March quarter, this was one of the best quarter after 2007.
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 92651 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.22 the option IVs for Calls at 22 % & Puts at 26 %. The Nifty Future is trading at 30 point Premium to spot. The Technical & Derivative positions seem to suggest an upmove into next week
Nifty on 30th Mar: 5295
Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy Nifty around 5280 for a Target of 5400. SL: 5235
Stock ideas for the Week: Buy Reliance around Rs 740 levels Target: Rs 760 SL : 735