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India - Week ahead - 8th - 14th March 2010

|Includes: EEM, HDB, IBN, India Fund (IFN), INFY, TTM, WIT
The Indian markets were on a tear with a break above 4950, the range break gave a 3.4 % up move. The markets seem to be finding it hard to move convincingly up, looks like a technical corrective move supported by global cues is in progress. The fundamentals in the global economy have not changed. The free money being printed and inflating assets is in full force. So tread with absolute caution on the up moves. The Indian story though is great going forward; the global brakes can slow the investments in India too. We are so networked with the rest of the world now. The food inflation is up @ 18 % and no signs of slowing down. The Indian government has indicated its interest in disinvestment and we are seeing some token disinvestments, the government must make some serious efforts to go all out and raise money, the government incurs $ 50 billion in just interest payments on debt to fund the PSU’s. Why should the government be in the business of refining petroleum & running banks….time to aggressively disinvest and save the future generations.
 This week the markets do not have any major triggers except for the IIP data for Jan on 11th March. The advance tax numbers being paid by companies will be watched for the expected profit data for Q4. Markets seem to have gone euphoric with the budget proposals and may have trapped most bulls. The VIX data confirms, there is no fear in the market. In the US, we will be watching the $ 200 B auction of T bills. Am not sure who is buying up all the debt? Print & Sell money! There seems to be suckers out there!
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 108000 Crs OI; the PCR is at 1.32 the option IVs for Calls at 19 % & Puts at 22%. The derivative position confirms we may have a sideways consolidation this week. The PCR suggest people have been hedging their Long positions aggressively.
Nifty on 5th March: 5089
For the week: Sell Nifty @ 5150 for a target of 4950 or lower. (Stop Loss – 5180)
Stock trading Ideas: Sell HDIL @ 320 – 25 range for a Target of 295 SL : 327
Happy Trading!