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BBM Hits 100M Downloads On Google Play In 16 Months

|Includes: BlackBerry Ltd. (BB)

SUMMARY:

  • On March 3, 2015, BBM crossed over the 100M installations mark on the Google Play Android store.
  • BBM user base is continuing to grow.
  • BBM is important to BBRY and their revenue plans for the future.

I wrote an article a few months ago detailing some results from a model I created on the growth of BBM. At that time my model predicted that BBM would cross into the 100M install bucket on Google Play by the 14 month mark. Since that article, BBM growth has slowed, but it finally hit 100M installs from Google Play about a week after its 16 month anniversary on the storefront. This is a significant milestone for BBRY.

For sake of comparison, these are the number of installs of other chat apps on the Google storefront as of March 3, 2015:

  • WhatsApp: 1B - 5B
  • Messenger (Facebook): 500M - 1B
  • Hangouts (Google): 500M - 1B
  • Skype: 500M - 1B
  • LINE: 100M - 500M
  • WeChat: 100M - 500M
  • Viber: 100M - 500M
  • Kik: 50M - 100M
  • Telegram: 50M - 100M

BBM now belongs to the 100M - 500M club.

When it comes to putting a dollar figure on BBM, things become a lot more complicated (see my previous article for a short discussion) because there are a significant number of unknowns. In order to chip away at these unknowns, I created a model to estimate BBM uptake, thus providing increased accuracy for at least some of the metrics used to establish value. Every new piece of public data about BBM helps dial in and refine this model. (I will follow up with a deeper analysis of BBM's prospects and my updated model in a future post.)

A few months ago, John Chen and his team forecasted that BBM would contribute $100M in revenue to this year's bottom line. This appears to be a significant piece of the puzzle for BBRY moving forward. Unfortunately for us, we will need to wait for the year to unfold before we get a final verdict on whether Chen and his team are on track. Until then, all we can do is try to create accurate models while the bulls and the bears fight it out.

DISCLOSURE: Please do your own due diligence. Do not take this as investment advice.

Disclosure: The author is long BBRY.