Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Industrialising the burger flippers

|Includes: GLD, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)


So if the US retail sector is set for a 15-30% (say a 10% rise in unemployment, 10% rise in savings rate, 5% real wage deflation, 5% shift in spending driven by import price rises on weak FX, robust food and energy prices) permanent contraction from peak it would imply a significant number of unskilled Americans being permanently unemployed from their former jobs. This raises the question of what productive new jobs could plausibly be created for them in the market and the only sectors I can think of is bringing manufacturing back to the US. However under the platform company world this pits them against Asian manufacturing wage earners who are only earning a few thousand dollars a year and it seems a bit unlikely. It would seem that there will be a high level of structural unemployment in the US for some time to come and that only a break down in the platform company system due to high energy/ shipping costs in a few years might or a tarif system to deal with Asian currency manipulation might resolve it.
Alternatively a reflationary outcome in Asia driven by US money printing might force a rise in commodity prices and Asian FX earlier than that. Hong Kong is printing money every day to hold the peg. You have to wonder how much they will print before they abandon the peg. If the USD they are accruing now are propping up the UST market then when the pegs are broken it will be a bit of a drought for the Treasury it will also flood the US system with dollars.
According to shadow stats the unemployment rate using the pre-Clinton measures is 21%.