Overview: Open interest (NYSE:OI) during the period had healthy growth, lead by the large increase in the euro, 39,899 contracts and the A$, with 16,574. The total OI increase was 47,793 despite a reduction of 27,462 contracts in the C$, liquidation related to the expiring March contract. Total spec positions versus the USD are evenly balanced with a net US$ short of 1196 contracts, but specs are heavily long the dollar versus the pound and the euro, long the DI, and short the US$ versus the C$ and the A$.
The small specs largest long percentage of the total OI is in the SF 38.9%, and the C$ at 30.1%. Largest small spec short positions are in the SF 28.8%, the Yen 27.9%, and the pound, 22.9%. The most popular long positions by the large spec is in the NZ$ 77.4%, and the DI 72.7%. The large specs are also long 57.6% of the A$ and 55.4% of the C$. Large specs biggest short position is again in the pound 56.2%, followed by euro at 47.7%. Large and small specs are on different sides of the market in the yen and the SF.
Trends in currencies often last much longer than expected, so a contrarian trader must be patient. That said, the time will come to buy the pound and sell the C$ or the A$. The pound has lost almost 2000 pips to the C$ since late January.
For the complete report with numerical summary of the weekly COT activity and further analysis, go to http://www.forexrazor.com/
Disclosure: no positions