Thanks Everyone for encouraging me to write my next SA Article on VRINGO VS Google. This is my second article in SA for Vringo Longs.
Time is approaching very fast for Google to take decision fast before the Trial begins on Oct 16th.
VRINGO has maintained clear upper hand in the case so far be it in MSJ/MIL's/Judge's comments & notions. I don't think it will be any different in the settlement or for that matter in Trial if it happens to go to that stage and it will be very easy for Jury to take a decision and award huge settlement to VRINGO with triple damages.
Reason being - it is very easy for Jury to understand what is online search or rank based search means or advs revenue is in this Internet era,just like the Jury of AAPL/Samsung case was able to decide Samsung has copied its Galaxy model by just looking at Apple Iphone in AAPL/Samsung case.
So Google has to do a reality check at this time, whether they want to accept the fact that they don't have strong case to go forward in the case and end this smoothly by settling before trial.
If Google decides to pull this beyond settlement stage, it will induce self damage in lot of different ways like being in limelight for bad reason in the public, Google investors will be upset with all the wrong buzz, stock price takes a hit in billions of dollars(2X or 3X of what they have to pay to VRINGO).
For Google's interest it is better for them to be passive in settlement/offer negotiations and end this with less damage. It will be better for them to offer what VRINGO is expecting in give and take approach, willing to offer extra 100M/200M Vringo is expecting instead of loosing a bigger amount in Trail.
On the other hand VRINGO has nothing to loose and they can go in with all guns blazing during Settlement/Trial process. It has been doing a lot of great things this year like acquiring I/P, setting up a great management team/legal team, getting nokia patents/sitting on 55m cash. In short time it has done lots of good things and thanks for this case now most of retail investors know about Vringo. Regardless of the VRINGO vs Google result,If they continue doing good things stock price of Vringo will go up in future patent cases/Acquisitions/any good initiatives Vringo might take in future.
Disclosure: I am long VRNG.
Additional disclosure: I am Long Vringo, I have not been compensated for this article and these are my expressions and opinions