Overview: Bias to risk assets like stocks, commodities, risk currencies on better than expected Aussie jobs and Japan final GDP data, in addition to anticipated near term boost to growth from coming US tax cuts, extended jobless benefits. Bonds continue lower as coming US tax cuts are another form of stimulus that could feed inflation (bad for bonds) and also possibly reduce Fed QE bond buying. Crude oil breaches $89, the AUD, CHF and GBP are the strongest fx over the past 24 hours, the NZD, JPY, and EUR the weakest.
STOCKS: US Up: US stocks ended with modest gains after mostly flat trading on a quiet news day.
US Bonds: Up- Treasury bonds continued their slide on Wednesday, sending the 10-year yield to 3.2360%; it’s highest since June, due to a stream of negative news for bonds, including:
• President Barack Obama's agreement to extend some Bush-era tax cuts sparked alarm among Treasury investors worried about the ballooning budget deficit.
• The tax cuts would stimulate the economy, also a negative for bonds, driving up inflation and potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to avoid extending its bond-buying program and thus reducing bond demand.
• An overall improving economic picture that suggests higher inflation and the need for higher rates.
• Many investors are cashing out of their heavy Treasury holdings accumulated earlier this year in anticipation of the Fed's $600 billion bond-buying program, launched a month ago.
Asia Stock Outlook: Up – Most indices close higher Thursday as better than expected Aussie jobs and Japan Final GDP aid foreign stock buying spurred by a lower Yen. Anticipated US tax cuts also feed optimism. The ominous exception is that Shanghai closed lower (Shanghai is considered by many to be a leading indicator index)
European Stock Outlook: Up – European indices opened higher and are overall holding those gains, bolstered by the higher Asian close and optimism that US tax cuts will feed global growth. European shares overall are at 26 month highs
Commodities Outlook Wednesday To Midday Thursday GMT: Commodities Overall Following Risk Appetite Higher , though precious metals down on EU crisis quiet. Oil rising on risk appetite, softs mixed.
Gold, silver: Down yesterday, thus far today gold slightly higher, silver unchanged since yesterday’s close as relative USD strength and quiet about the EUR undermine precious metals.
Crude oil: futures up Wednesday and continuing higher today, breaking over $89 following stocks and risk appetite higher on hopes that coming US tax cuts will feed oil demand.
Softs: Wheat, soybeans, cotton up over the past 24 hours but slightly lower thus far today, coffee lower over the past 24 hours but slightly higher thus far today, sugar higher yesterday and continuing into today
FOREX Daily Outlook Wednesday To Midday Thursday GMT: Bias to risk currencies with exceptions. Strongest over the past 24 hours: AUD, CHF, GBP in that order. Weakest: NZD, JPY, EUR. Better than expected Aussie jobs and Japan GDP data behind the risk rally.
Great Aussie jobs figures and better than expected Japan Final GDP send the Aussie higher erasing yesterday’s weakness. Good mfg data and expected BOE rate increase by many traders support the Pound, no clear fundamental reason for CHF strength, or NZD, EUR weakness. JPY seems to be suffering due to rising risk appetite today despite its own better GDP data that is feeding risk sentiment.
US Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. all except up vs. the JPY, AUD, NZD over the past 24 hours, gaining thus far today on riskier currencies, has pulled almost even with the EUR.
Euro Daily Outlook: Up vs. the USD over the past 24 hours but ceding almost all those gains thus far today, up vs. the JPY, NZD, down vs. the GBP, CHF, AUD, CAD
Yen Daily Outlook: Down vs. all over the past 24 hours except up vs. the NZD as part of risk on day despite better than expected Final GDP data.
British Pound Daily Outlook: Up vs. all over the past 24 hours, holding those gains vs. all except the AUD, CHF, against both of these the Pound has lost yesterday’s gains thus far today, as overall better data and anticipated BoE rate hike support the Pound.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: Up vs. all as part of overall risk on day and better than expected jobs data, showing highest monthly growth in 10 months, details were as strong as the headline figure. RBA recently held rates steady but if job growth continues that raises expectations for rate increases.
New Zealand Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. all, no clear fundamental reason for the weakness given the risk on day, good Japan GDP data, and strong Aussie jobs figures which usually help the NZD because the two often move together
Canadian Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. the USD, GBP, CHF, AUD, up vs. the EUR, JPY (but giving up some of those gains from yesterday thus far today), NZD
Swiss Franc Daily Outlook: Up vs. all over the past 24 hours except slightly down vs. the AUD as the AUD gains strength today on great jobs figures
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: AUTHOR SHORT EUR FOR PERSONAL PORTFOLIO, THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER