Last Week December 6th – 10th Calendar Themes, Key Market Movers
Last Monday and Tuesday most markets worldwide were lower on concern about the EU sovereign debt/banking crisis, China tightening and slowdown, and new uncertainty about whether the anticipated US tax cuts would pass into law. Wednesday they made a mild technical bounce off support despite ominous news of another failed German bond auction and China moving up the release of a batch of key data that suggested China believed the results to be so potentially market moving that they wanted them released before markets opened in order to remove uncertainty, stabilize markets.
A slow but steady trickle of good data from Japan and Australia on Thursday, followed by more from China, the US and Canada Friday, allowed a continued modest drift higher for many risk assets on the week, though significantly, most of the risk currencies missed the move.
Unlike the prior 2 weeks, this week’s calendar has a bit more that might move markets, though liquidity could continue to drain out of markets and suppress price movements as we proceed towards the December holiday season. However, low liquidity is a dual edged sword. It promotes especially subdued volatility if there are no major surprises, but it also means that any major shocks tend to produce exaggerated price moves due to the lack of buyers and sellers.
Note that despite the modest rise in stocks, risk currencies and commodities were mostly losers on the week, suggesting that stock traders are more optimistic than forex and commodity traders. Yet bonds too were lower, offering some support for equities bulls.
Likely Big Calendar Themes For The Coming Week
Traders return Monday armed with the latest inflation reading out of China, which we believe is more bullish than bearish.
They show continued strong growth.
They also show inflation is still a problem and that further tightening measures are a certainty. However markets already know that China is in a tightening phase, which is only of concern because it risks slowing growth. Thus as long as growth continues despite the tightening markets will take overall data from China as bullish.
Traders will also contend with a bunch of important economic data released throughout the week in the U.S., including the PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Housing Starts reports.
The FOMC meeting on Tuesday that will certainly hold the market's utmost attention, and could be significant if the Fed uses the occasion to try to talk down bond rates by promising all the needed US bond purchases in order to get rates lower.
Finance ministers meetings
Highlights By Region In Chronological Order
Tuesday – Nov. Advance Retail Sales, Nov. Producer Price Index, Oct. Business Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, Dec. 12 ABC Consumer Confidence
Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. Consumer Price Index, Dec. Empire Manufacturing, Oct. Total Net TIC Flows, Nov. Industrial Production, Nov. Capacity Utilization, Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed’s Lockhart speaks on Atlanta regional economy
Thursday – Nov. Housing Starts, Nov. Building Permits, 3Q Current Account Balance, Weekly Jobless Claims, Dec. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Geithner testifies at Congressional Oversight Panel
Friday – Nov. Leading Indicators
Monday – German Finance Minister Schaeuble speaks on Berlin Panel , EU Foreign Ministers Meeting
Tuesday – EZ Oct. Industrial Production and Dec. ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment, German Dec. ZEW Surveys of Economic Sentiment and Current Situation, Germany’s Ifo Economic Institute Publishes Economic Forecasts
Wednesday – EZ 3Q Employment, European Commission Issues Quarterly Report on Euro Area
Thursday – EZ Dec. PMI Composite, Manufacturing, and Services, EZ Nov. CPI, German Dec. A Manufacturing and PMI Services, EU Summit
Friday – EZ Oct. Construction Output, EZ Oct. Trade Balance, German IFO-Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations, EU Summit, ECB’s Weber speaks in Munich on Capital Markets Macroeconomic Perspectives
Monday – Nov. PPI Input NSA, Nov. RICS House Price Balance
Tuesday – Oct. DCLG UK House Prices, Nov. CPI, Nov. Retail Price Index
Wednesday – Nov. Claimant Count Change, Nov. Jobless Claims Change, Oct. ILO Unemployment Rate
Thursday – Nov. Retail Sales, Nov. Nationwide Consumer Confidence, BOE Releases Inflation Attitudes Survey
Monday – Oct. F Industrial Production, Oct. F Capacity Utilization, Nov. Tokyo Condominium Sales
Tuesday – Oct. Tertiary Industry Index; 4Q Tankan Large Manufacturers, Non-Manufacturing, Large Manufacturing Outlook, Non-Manufacturing Outlook, Large All Industry Capex
Monday – 3Q Capacity Utilization Rate, BoC’s Carney gives speech
Tuesday – Nov. Leading Indicators, 3Q Labor Productivity
Wednesday – Oct. Manufacturing Sales
Thursday – Oct. International Securities Transactions
Australia & New Zealand
Sunday – NZ Nov. Food Prices
Monday – Australia 3Q Dwelling Starts, Australia Nov. NAB Business Conditions & Confidence, NZ Oct. Retail Sales, NZ Nov. Non Resident Bond Holdings, NZ Nov. REINZ Housing Price Index
Tuesday – Australia Dec. Westpac Consumer Confidence, Australia Dec. DEWR Skilled Vacancies, Australia Nov. New Motor Vehicle Sales
Wednesday – Australia Dec. Consumer Inflation Expectation, Reserve Bank’s Bulletin Dec. Quarter 2010, NZ Nov. Business PMI, NZ Dec. NBNZ Business Confidence & Activity Outlook.
ALERT: IRISH PARLIAMENTS VOTES ON LATEST REQUIRED SPENDING CUTS FOR RECEIVING EU/IMF BAILOUT. Consensus belief is that Ireland will pass the needed budget changes, but the IMF is not fully convinced and has withheld €22.5 bln in funds until after the vote. If Ireland surprises and rejects the bailout, this becomes THE likely market moving event of the week as risk assets would plunge, especially the EUR, with corresponding rally in the USD.
Friday – RBA Nov. Foreign Exchange Transaction
Saturday – Nov. Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Assets Investment Urban Cumulative ALERT: THESE ALL CAME OUT EITHER IN LINE OR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. AS NOTED ELSEWHERE, WE BELIEVE THE OVERALL RESULT IS MORE BULLISH BECAUSE WHILE INFLATION FIGURES WERE ALSO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED CHINA TIGHTENING IS ALREADY COMING AND KNOWN TO MARKETS. THAT IS ONLY A CONCERN IF / WHEN IT CHOKES OFF GROWTH. WHILE CHINESE GROWTH REMAINS STRONG MARKETS COULD WELL SHRUG OFF INFLATIONARY DATA, GIVEN THE OVERALL PREVAILING RISK APPETITE.
Dec. 10-12 – China Central Economics Works Conference
Dec. 11-15 – Nov. Actual FDI (YoY)
The calendar bears watching, along with other key market drivers detailed in or weekly reports at www.fxinsights.com under the weekly tab or click on: MARKET DRIVERS PAST AND COMING WEEK DEC 13 TO 17: EU CONCERNS VS GOOD DATA US TAX CUTS
For a concise description of the balance of bullish and bearish forces going forward into the year end and early 2011 see: BULLISH AND BEARISH THEMES GOING FORWARD INTO 2011: BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS VS BULLISH INTERVENTION
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: AUTHOR IS SHORT THE EUR, LONG THE CAD, AUD AND USD, LONG SELECTED EQUITIES HELD AS LONG TERM INCOME/GROWTH INVESTMENTS, SHORT THE OVERALL STOCK MARKET FOR HIS PERSONAL PORTFOLIO. THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER