Likely trends and their drivers for both traditional spot market and binary options traders of short term trades in forex, stocks, and commodities.MARKET MOVERS
The below is just a listing. For full details see: March 14-18 Top Market Movers: 2nd Annual EU Crisis, Oil PricesPRIOR WEEK
- EU Debt Crisis Fears
- MENA Unrest & Oil Prices
- China Trade Deficit
- EU Debt Crisis On More Bad News, EU Inaction
- MENA & Oil Prices
- Japan Earthquake, Nuclear Reactor Shutdown
- Fed Outlook Change?
- Top Economic Calendar Events
There are 4 major central bank rate announcements (the Fed, BoJ, SNB, and Norway’s Norges Bank). No surprise rate increases, but the accompanying comments may signal surprise changes in policy biases that could move currency markets, especially if surprises come from the Fed. There’ also an RBA publication of monetary policy meeting minutes.ALSO
- Asia: Ramifications of Japan earthquake and reactor shutdown, both for the Japanese economy as a whole and on regional oil prices. Japan suffered not only a 26% loss of power generation, it also lost about 20% of its oil refining capacity.
- US: US TIC long term asset purchases, PPI, core CPI, building permits
- Europe: German ZEW economic sentiment
- UK: claimant count change, BoE King speaks, provides latest hints on UK rate hike prospects, expect continued dovishness.
Key events in boldfaceUNITES STATES
Tuesday- March Empire Manufacturing, Feb. Import Price Index, Jan. Total Net Tic Flows, March, NAHB Housing Market Index, FOMC Rate Decision & Rate Statement
Wednesday- MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. Housing Permits, Feb. Building Permits, Feb.Producer Price Index, Q4 Current Account
Thursday- Consumer Price Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, Feb. Industrial Production, Feb. Capacity Utilization, Feb. Leading Indicators, March Philadelphia FedEURO-ZONE
Monday- Jan. EZ Industrial Production
Tuesday- EZ Employment 4Q, EZ March ZEW Economic Sentiment, German March ZEW Surveys(Current Situation & Econ. Sentiment), EU Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
Wednesday- EZ 4Q Feb CPI
Thursday- EZ Jan. Construction Output Friday- EZ Jan. Current Account, Trade Balance, German Feb. PPIUNITED KINGDOM
Tuesday- DCLG Jan. House Prices
Wednesday – Feb. Claimant Count Change, Jan. Avg. Weekly Earnings, Jan ILO Unemployment Rate, Thursday – Feb. Nationwide Consumer ConfidenceJAPAN
Monday- Jan. F Industrial Production, Jan. F Capacity Utilization, Feb. Consumer Confidence
Tuesday- BOJ Target Rate, Feb. F Machine Tool Orders, 1Q BSI Large All Industry, 1Q BSI Large Manufacturing
Wednesday- Feb. Tokyo Condominium, Jan. Tertiary Industry Index
Thursday- BOJ Feb.16-17 Board Minutes Friday- Jan. F Coincident & Leading Index.CANADA
Monday- 4Q Capacity Utilization Rate
Tuesday- 4Q Labor Productivity Rate
Wednesday- Jan. Manufacturing Sales
Thursday Jan. Int’l Securities Transactions, Jan. Wholesale Sales, Feb. Consumer Price Index,Feb. Bank Friday- Canada CPI CoreAUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
Monday- RBA March Minutes, Feb. New Motor Vehicle Sales, NZ REINZ House Sales (3/14-16)
Tuesday Jan. Westpac Leading Index, 4Q Dwelling Starts
Thursday: RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions, NZ 1Q Westpac Consumer ConfidenceCHINA
March 13-18- Feb. Actual FDI, March 13-15 Feb. New Yuan Loans, Feb. Money Supply (M0,M1,M2) Tuesday- Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index
For a full listing of calendar events, their relative importance, previous and forecasted results, see www.forexfactory.com >> calendar tab.Conclusions & Ramifications- Tradable Trends To WatchGENERAL RISK ASSETS LIKE STOCKS, STOCK INDEXES
Most stocks move with overall market trends, and our preferred best picture of these is the S&P 500 index.
What is it telling us about overall risk appetite?
First let’s look at the weekly chart.
S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART COURTESY ANYOPTION.COM 09MAR 130707 D
The weekly chart above shows a clear consolidation, with the weekly close right at the lower edge of the upper Bollinger band buy zone and key psychological 1300 level Big round numbers like 1200 or 1300 tend to be natural support/resistance areas, especially when they have been as time tested as this 1300 level over the past years.
This chart suggests more downside on a weekly close below 1300. Now let’s zoom in on the daily chart.
S&P 500 DAILY CHART COURTESY OF ANYOPTION.COM 10MAR13 0714
As with the weekly chart we have a series of lower highs and lower lows that establish an initial down trend, and a well formed descending channel.
Two technical points stand out:
- Here too on this daily chart we see the index resting on major support, this time the 50 day moving average around 1300
- Unlike the on weekly chart, however, we’re already in the Bollinger band SELL zone, bounded by the LOWER 1 and 2 standard deviation bands that suggest a strong momentum downwards
This means we are looking to enter short positions on the S&P 500 or other risk assets that tend to follow it (most of them, like industrial commodities, grains, other stock indexes, and individual sector-leading stocks).
Those preferring to play these trends via ETFs: For example:
S&P 500: SPY (long), SDS (short)
The Dow Industrials: DIA (long), or just short it to play the short side if the short ETFs don’t appeal to you.
The Nasdaq: QQQQ (long), or just short it to play the short side if the short ETFs don’t appeal to you.
We would wait to enter new short positions on these assets until we see a daily close decisively below 1300. For example, we’d like to see a daily close below our lower channel line around 1285.
For our binary option traders, that means consider buying puts on the S&P 500, or other risk assets mentioned above.
Beware that since the MENA unrest sent oil prices high enough to threaten global economies, oil now moves in the opposite direction. Gold tends to move in the opposite direction of the EUR when there is high anxiety about the Euro.FOREX FAVORITE TRENDS TO WATCH & TRADE
The likely prime market movers of the coming week, the EU crisis and MENA unrest, create particularly good trading opportunities in forex, as the EUR and USD are good plays on both the EU, risk, and oil.
EURUSD DAILY CHART COURTESY OF ANYOPTION.COM 08 MAR13 0651EURUSD, GBPUSD: Bias to the downside
Per the EURUSD Daily Chart below, from a purely technical perspective we’d Long if get daily close back over 1.3950 area, because that brings us back into the Bollinger band buy zone between the upper 1 and 2 standard deviation bands. However until we see real signs of progress from the EU meetings, we would question the move, especially because long term resistance of 1.4000 is so close and allows little room to profit until we get clean break above that resistance.
Short if closes on daily chart below1.3758 to test its 50 day moving average around 1.3665, then 1.3550. At that level, a break lower opens the way for a test of its 200 day moving average around 1.3450.
For binary options traders, this means buying puts on these pairs in your chosen time frame, be it hourly, daily, or calendar week expirations.
Those preferring to stick to traditional stock market instruments can play these via their associated ETFs. For example:
The Euro: FXE (or its short ETF, EUO)
The USD: UUP (or its short ETF, UDN)
As noted in March 14-18 Top Market Movers: 2nd Annual EU Crisis, Oil Prices, near term fundamentals are worsening for the Euro and put the odds on the side of a deeper test of support
We see similar near term topping and downside to for the GBPUSD, as EUR weakness feeds USD strength.
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: AUTHOR SHORT THE EUR FOR PERSONAL PORTFOLIO. THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER