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A Professional Global Market Analyst's 2010 Market Predictions – Part 1 (Abridged)

NB THE BELOW IS AN ABRIDGED VERSION FOR QUICK SKIMMING. THOSE SEEKING FURTHER DETAILS SHOULD VISIT: http://fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.com 

The Likely Scenario :The Second Leg Down of the "W" Shaped Recovery
The short version: we look for significant declines in global risk assets:
 Equities: The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, DJ Euro Stoxx, Nikkei, Hang Seng et. al. will likely be traveling South this year for an extended stay.
Industrial Commodities: The same goes for oil, gas, base metals, and most industrial commodities.
Forex: Risk currencies, i.e. those that are in demand in periods of optimism: the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Euro, Canadian Dollar, and related currency pairs that benefit the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD,  and USD/JPY. Safe haven currencies, like the Yen, Swiss Franc, and even the maligned US dollar, are likely to do better in the coming year, as will assets denominated in these. Thus these pairs are likely to make good shorts in times of peaking fear. Admittedly, this factor alone might  provide  some support for the related stock exchanges. Gauging the interplay among asset markets is notoriously treacherous
Note that we are assuming that the US Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc retain their tendency to rise in times of fear. Because their ability to do that depends on their maintaining lower short term interest rates, (likely), they will benefit as risk trades unwind.
Industrial Commodities: The same goes for oil, gas, base metals, and most industrial commodities.
Admittedly, the timing is far from assured, given the impressive ability of governments worldwide to hit the global economy with unprecedented flows of liquidity. Many analysts have mentioned the first half of 2010, but 6 month plus time lines usually mean they don't really know.
Logically, however, the game can't continue, because global asset markets are still far larger than the state assets available for bailout and stimulus. Thus after over 2 years,  Judgment Day can't be deferred unless genuine self sustaining growth kicks in fast, which does not appear to be happening. While there is not enough space here for detailing our reasoning, (see our prior posts at  http://fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.com for details).
 VISIT THIS LINK FOR THE FURTHER DETAILS ON OUR REASONING AND LIKELY CAUSES OF THE NEXT LEG DOWN