First, the shocker "Funeral" for the EUR, at least for today's trade:
The Stark Reality For Greece:
Early this morning European Central Bank Executive Board Member Juergen Stark announced that the EU will not help bail out Greece.
"The markets are deluding themselves when they think at a certain point the other member states will put their hands on their wallets to save Greece," Stark said in an interview with Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore.
Stark said in recent years Greece had not controlled its public accounts or worked to help improve the country's competitiveness.
"The Treaties envisage the non-rescue clause and the rules must be respected," he said.
Recent news about Greek budgets suggested they were slowly moving toward resolving their troubles, but apparently the ECB felt the pace was inadequate. Sovereign debt concerns have had dogged the EUR since late November.
The Euro trend today is likely to be downward, meaning the USD should move up, and its chief counterparts like the Euro and British Pound, should be down. Possibly the USD's fellow safe haven currencies, the Yen and Swiss Franc could be in for trouble, at least until the below jobs data comes out.
Four Key News Releases to Move Markets Today: Prelude to Friday's Jobs Reports
Wednesday will fill in most of the remaining leading indicators for Friday's climactic Non-Farm Payrolls Change and Unemployment Rate reports. If they all show a common theme of beating, meeting, or disappointing consensus expectations, we could get a much better picture of Friday's likely result. If they are really unequivocally sending the same message, they could even spark the major volatility of the week and set up a subdued, anti-climactic market response if the actual data on Friday is indeed in line with Wednesday's results. They are:
1. The Challenger Job Cuts y/y Change: Limited short term correlation with overall labor conditions
2. The ADP Non Farm Employment Change: Generally accurate about the direction relative to prior month. However the result last month was worse than expected, whereas the results for the actual U.S. Dept. of Labor figures were much better than expected, so accuracy is not reliable
3. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The employment component of this report has a reputedly very high (about 90%) correlation to the actual result, though again last month it did not reflect the extreme extent of improvement in the Friday government figures.
4. FOMC Member Lacker Speaks: NB: While not a leading indicator of the Friday reports, recent comments from Fed Presidents suggest they are still taking a very cautious approach. Whether markets interpret these remarks as more or less upbeat than the last Fed statement could well outweigh the above three reports.
Thursday will fill in the last 2 of the 9 leading indicators: The Monster.com on line jobs ads index, and the U.S. weekly unemployment claims, which completes the latest 4 week moving average Friday morning 08:30 EST brings the actual reports. Market reaction to them should profoundly affect the near term outlook for the USD, and thus for most major international Forex, Commodity, and Equities markets, for the coming days.
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