the following is an abridged version see www.fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.com for full version and details
Overview: Stocks and other risk assets continue to fall, this time on awful US existing home sales data, the worst monthly drop ever recorded
STOCKS: US: Down – Continuing down, making lower lows on appalling US housing data. After falling below its 50 day SMA last Thursday, the S&P 500 tried but failed to breach it. Futures stable in midday GMT trade Wednesday.Bellwether S&P 500 in serious technical breakdown, suggesting more downside ahead. See the stocks section of August 23rd – 27th Quick Review/Preview: Stocks, Commodities, Forex for details
US Bonds: Up- Benchmark 10 Year Note up with falling stocks, with yield down from 2.6070% to 2.4990%.
Asia Stock Outlook: Down- Most major Asian markets down Japan's Nikkei average hit a 16-month closing low on Wednesday, at one point falling more than 2 percent, as weakness in the US pressures stocks throughout Asia
European Stock Outlook: Down – Most major European bourses tracking US lower on building evidence of economic slowdown, despite rising M&A activity. After attempting to break higher after a lower open, stocks have slid back into the red on poor US data and US, Asian stock performance.
Commodities Outlook Tuesday-Early Wednesday: Futures mixed. Energy weak, gold up, wheat, sugar stable, corn, coffee, soybeans down. Note that most soft commodities have been in major up-trends since July and these remain intact, though many are flattening out
Crude Oil Daily Outlook: Down- Following stocks, continuing its Thursday breakdown after bad US jobs and manufacturing data sent it below strong 4 month support of $75. Futures currently just below $72, down slightly from $72.28 24 hours ago/
Gold Daily Outlook:Up: Futures up 1.3% over the past 24 hours, currently around $1236 up from $1220 in the past 24 hours, as weak US data currency concerns bullish momentum aid gold. NB hedge funds are heavily long, making gold vulnerable, though a near term test of its highs around 1265 appears likely
FOREX Daily Outlook Tuesday-Early Wednesday trade GMT: Bias to safety currencies but many exceptions, some clear daily rotation occurring. Yesterday CHF weakest, today is strongest, JPY second strongest, USD third. CAD, GBP remain weakest in that order GBP suffers on BoE comments that UK may tip back into recession, CAD from weak oil, stocks.
US Dollar Daily Outlook: Up vs. the, GBP, commodity dollars down vs. the EUR JPY, CHF. Per latest COT report, large speculators are long 3.8 to 1 short. Benefitting from risk aversion, lower stocks, but still the #3 safe haven choice behind the JPY and CHF.
Euro Daily Outlook: Up vs. the USD on bad US housing data vs. better German data, GBP, all commodity dollars, flat vs. the JPY but rising thus far today recouping all of yesterday’s losses, down vs. the CHF. Getting a reaction bounce after yesterday’s drop and bad US housing data, also good German Ifo report.
Yen Daily Outlook: Up vs. all except down vs. the CHF, flat vs. the EUR which is recouping yesterday’s losses vs. the JPY thus far today. Per latest COT report, large speculators remain 5:1 long, small speculators slightly net short, bullish for the JPY. Up strongly yesterday but losing ground vs. most fx thus far today, though net still up over the past 24 hours unless otherwise noted.
British Pound Daily Outlook: Down EUR, USD, JPY, CHF AUD, NZD flat vs. the CAD on BoE official comments that the UK economy risks slipping into double-dip recession.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. all except up vs. the CAD, though recovery vs. many thus far today.
New Zealand Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. all except up vs. the GBP, CAD
Canadian Dollar Daily Outlook: Down vs. all for the third day straight, pressured by falling stocks, oil, risk appetite, and falling rate increase expectations, after a long rally made the Loonie ripe for a correction.
Swiss Franc Daily Outlook: Up vs. all as today’s preferred safe haven on a strong risk aversion day, continuing to gain vs. most major fx.
DISCLOSURE: NO POSITIONS