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WEEKLY QUICK REVIEW PREVIEW STOCKS COMMODITIES FOREX



A very quick look at the major asset markets for the prior, coming week.
Likely Market Movers To Watch This Week
 
  1. US Monthly Jobs Reports And Related Preceding Reports
  2. Q3 Earnings
  3. Central Bank Rate Statements: Potential Australia Tightening, UK Easing
  4. Potential Further Bank of Japan Intervention and Monetary Easing
  5. Other Key Calendar Events
  6. Wildcards
 
The following focus mostly on the prior week. For the coming week expect these asset classes to move in their usual response to risk appetite, as driven by the above likely market drivers.
 
STOCKS
 
Traded in tight ranges, reflecting the lack of new data. Given that global equities are at multi-month highs, we have to respect this ability to resist profit taking and respect the established trend, complete with a bullish ‘golden cross’ (50 day SMA crossing above 200 day SMA) on the major US indices.
 
Still, given the still very unimpressive fundamentals, and resistance zone on the S&P 500 until the 1170 area, we remain skeptical and recommend caution with new long positions at this time.
 
 
 
Briefing.com 02OCT02 h
 
US Bonds
 
Benchmark 10 year note up for the week.
 
COMMODITIES
 
As with forex markets, the big story here was USD weakness, because commodities are priced in US dollars. In addition, the EUR has more than its own share of near and longer term troubles that give markets reason to seek a hedge against it as well.
 
Yet despite currency fears, oil, not gold was not the big commodity gainer this week, gaining over 6.5% and breaking over resistance at $80.
 


 
Oilngold.com 03oct03
 
CURRENCIES
 
A quick summary of last week’s results from strongest to weakest

EUR (euro)
AUD (Australian dollar)
JPY (Japanese yen)
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
CHF (Swiss franc)
CAD (Canadian dollar)
GBP (British pound)
USD (U.S. dollar)
 
 
Expected new US stimulus was seen as a more immediate issue than any new EU issues, and that essentially  explains both USD weakness, EUR AND JPY strength.
 
Despite plenty of bad news on EZ banks and slowing German growth, the EUR was strongest.
 
Even though it was an overall ‘risk-on’ week the JPY was among the biggest gainers.
 
The only common denominator here is that both, especially the EUR, get moved in the opposite direction by the USD. Indeed, the JPY has seen intervention efforts utterly annulled since the FOMC telegraphed new stimulus ahead
 
The EUR may have gotten a bit of a boost from IMF head Strauss-Kahn, who said that  he does not expect the euro rescue fund to be activated because of Ireland.
 
The British pound rebounded vs. the USD but continued to drop vs. the EUR. The move in the GBP/USD has been clearly driven by dollar weakness as the market’s true judgment of the GBP shows in the EUR/GBP, which is trading at a 4 month high.
 
On Thursday the BoE could well join Japan and the US in increasing its quantitative easing, by about £50 bln, in response to overall worsening data.
Conclusion: US Jobs Reports, Earnings The Likely Key Drivers
 
If both point in the same direction, markets will likely follow. If they contradict each other, with one positive and the other negative, the jobs reports should dominate.
 
 
 
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: NO POSITIONS, THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER