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Has President Obama Become A Sell? (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:GS)

|Includes: GS, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

During many administrations regardless of political party, the markets either rallied higher or sold off when someone important from the executive branch speaks. Since President Obama's inauguration he has normally appeared on the television at least once a day, often two or three times during trading hours from 9:30 am – 4:00 pm EST. Since March 2009 the market has rallied higher nearly every time the President has spoken. Recently since January 2010 a change in this phenomenon has occurred and the market seems to sell off when he speaks. If you want to see evidence of this just look at an intra day chart of the SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY) today at 10:20 am EST this morning. The S&P 500 sold off during his speech and rebounded around 20 minutes later. Could this spell bigger problems ahead for the markets and for the administration?

Prior to the current administration President Bush received a cheerful market reception when he spoke during market hours throughout his first term. Then once his approval rating declined during his second term the market seemed to decline every time he spoke during market hours. Ironically, the market seemed to always sell off when his second Treasury Secretary former Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) CEO Hank Paulson spoke during market hours. The current Treasury Secretary and former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Tim Geithner seems to receive a mixed reception from the markets when he speaks during market hours.

It is interesting to note that when President Bush's approval rating declined so did the stock market. As we all know this decline that was experienced in 2008 was the worst since the 1930's 'Great Depression.' Currently President Obama's approval rating seems to be declining at a rapid rate. Remember the old market adage, “As a president approval rating goes, so goes the market”. If one looks at the markets under president Jimmy Carter it is evident how this old statement seems to hold a lot of water.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist