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Oh, Now You Want to Buy Stocks

Since the early July stock market low the sentiment has completely changed. In late June and early July every business talk show in the media was mentioning a stock market death cross (50 moving average crossing over to the downside the 200 moving average) and a massive head and shoulders top pattern (symmetrical bearish pattern that can often predict the target) in the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It seemed that Armageddon was upon us. However, as we all know when everyone is looking at the same thing the market rarely does the market allows that to happen. As you all know by now the market has only rallied from early July and has now traded higher by over 10.0 percent.

Now the business shows in the media are feeling good again. Investors are once again getting bullish looking for new highs. It still amazes me that people hated the market around 1011.00 on the S&P 500, however, they love it at 1118.00 when it is higher by more than 10.0 percent. Traders and investors in the media are now telling traders to buy stocks when we are nearing major important resistance levels. Are you telling me you want to buy Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) now at $71.50 when you could have owned it in early July at $57.00? What about Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF)? These people want you to own it now at $56.00 when they could have owned it at $45.00 in early July. People, this is when the professional trader is selling it to the public. Remember the public is always late to the party.

When everyone loves the market, that is the time to get out. When everyone hates the market that is the time to get in. The talking heads in the media always tell people to chase stock moves higher. It is the same as when a major brokerage firm upgrades a stock at a high. Just look at what happened to Jetblue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU) on June 14th when it was upgraded $6.80. Ironically, there were not any upgrades to mention on July 2nd when the stock was trading down to $5.25 a share. Simply put just learn to read the charts and forget the news.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist