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Market Catches An Early Bid. Here Is The Reason Why.

The major stock market indexes have all started the session in the positive this morning. Many of the talking heads in the media will say that the catalyst for the small gap higher open was due to the better than expected weekly initial unemployment claims report. While this weekly report was better than last week's it is still pretty dire. At this stage of a recovery jobless claims should not be coming in at 473,000. The move higher in the major market indexes today is simply because the U.S. Dollar Index is trading lower.

When the dollar declines the major stock averages will inflate and trade higher. Most commodity and inflationary stocks will immediately trade higher when the U.S. Dollar Index drops. Just look at leading commodity stocks such as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF), and United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:X), they are both trading higher this morning. One stock that is often the most important for the major stock market indexes is Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM). When this energy behemoth trades higher the major indexes will usually trade higher as well. Today Exxon Mobil Corp. is trading higher by 0.23 cents to $59.14. Should this leading stock decline then there is a very good chance that the stock market will decline. This is a market barometer stock.

When it is all said and done watch the U.S. Dollar Index for clues. The major stock indexes will generally inflate higher when the dollar declines. Should the U.S. Dollar Index rally it is very likely that this weak market will deflate and continue to decline lower.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist