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Q1 2009 GDP

 

Q1 GDP -5.7%

It's worse than street expected, but maybe in line or better than whisper number. Reading the details in the table: 1. Compared with Q1 advace (1st estimate): Personal

consupmtion is waker, but compensated by stronger government consumption,

exports.

 2. Compared with Q4 08: Personal consumption is better (but Q4

was- 4.3% and it's probably too pessimistic ); BUT private investment has decreased dramatically (-49.3% vs -23% in Q4). It's really bad news; Narrowing of trade deficit helped, but not sure this is a long term healthy.

In conclusion, maybe US is undergoing a structural change in their economy from consumer eco to other forms of economy (who knows what it will be). But this process is forced to happen in a too short of period, it's painful. And

consumer spending shall still be very important  parameter for this year to watch.