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Hindenburg Omen Blog - December, 2011 - The HO Is Repaired

This is the continuation of a discussion on the Hindenburg Omen which was originated by our friend John Lounsbury over 2 full years ago.  Again, we offer a great big "thank you" to John for having maintained this series of instas for over a year and a half, until I finally learned how to create one by myself and take this endeavor off his hands.

The preceding blog can be read here.  For further reference, or to read about actual Hindenburg events we have covered including the near misses which occurred in the "week before" and the "day of" the flash crash, the entire series began with John's original post which can be found here.
                                     RAVELLO, ITALY
Instead of having to look at the usual picture of the little blimp, why don't we just relax in Italy.  If you have Google Earth on your computer, you simply have to see this incredibly beautiful town to believe it.


On Wed., Oct. 19th, the HO had finally became fully functional once again when the 50 day MA flicked ever so slightly higher.  But as you all know, that darned moving average rolled lower on November 21st and has been offline ever since.  However, with today's massive opening gap higher on the NYSE, the moving average has today suddenly turned higher after spending 9 days on the skids.  The Hindenberg Omen is once again back in operation.  This time, as evidenced by the price action of 50 days ago, it would appear that the HO should remain online for quite some time.  For quick reference, here's a 'still picture' of how we measure the all-important 50 day moving average.  You can also see clearly that the 50 day MA has rolled higher for the second time in 42 calendar days.  Feel free to click the link at the bottom of the chart for a live an updated version:

                                Live and Updated Version

We will now pick up where we left off, since the odds are very high that if/when the HO issues another signal, it will almost assuredly be something we dare not ignore.  The main thing to keep in mind is that due to its rather strict requirements, any signal from the HO will likely be issued somewhat late.  "Late" being a relative term in this case.  It may seem 'late' at the time a signal is issued but if history has any say in the matter, it could well turn out that the signal actually occurs relatively early in what has sometimes turns out to be a severe pullback.  In a perfect world, the HO would have issued a signal at some point last May.  Unfortunately, for the reasons given above... it didn't.  Not "officially".


I'm pleased to announce that on December 10th I published the first entry in my new blog.  For the longest time I had been very reluctant to create a blog of my own, but for so many different reasons (trolls on other sites being the main one) I finally decided that it was probably better if I do.  It's also about the only way any of you are ever going to see any of my technical work other than the HO business since SA is unfortunately so unsupportive of articles that are based on TA.  You'll also find links to blog sites that I visit often, most of which are run by like-minded friends of mine who are also analysts and technicians.  It's a work in progress so if you find it at all interesting, please bookmark it and check in every now and again as more content will be added on a semi-regular basis.  Albertarocks' TA Discussions