Dividend Growth Stock VS Index - ten year estimate

With all the conversations about index investing versus individual stocks, I decided to run two different scenarios. I decided to use Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) and ExxonMobil (XOM). I chose XOM because it is the largest holding of VTSMX. So here are the basic facts:

 

VTSMX

Expense Ratio: 0.18%

Average Yield over last 5 years: 1.91%

Price used for calculation: 29.18

Average Div. Growth Rate over last 5 years: 0% (sporadic)

 

XOM

Expense Ratio: 0%

Average Yield over last 5 years: 2.43%

Average Div. Growth Rate over last 5 years: 5%

 

I used 5 years before retirement and 5 years after retirement for a total of 10 years. I also used the stated fact that both investors need $125 a year. Also, since VTSMX is an index fund, I gave it a 5% bonus in down market years and a 5% penalty in up market years simply because it is an average.

 

Investor A – puts $5,000 into VTSMX and reinvests dividends for 5 years and then stops reinvestment after that point.

Investor B – puts $5,000 into XOM and reinvests dividends for 5 years and then stops reinvestment after that point.

 

With those facts in mind, I randomly chose up and down market amounts (I could back test but as all prospectuses say “past results are not predictive of future results”.)

 

Here are the results (I will show only account balances to save on space):

Year 1

Investor A – VTSMX 0%, Return Account balance – $5079.35

Investor B – XOM 5% Return, Account balance – $5292.44

 

Year 2

Investor A – VTSMX 5%, Return Account balance – $5460.97

Investor B – XOM 10% Return, Account balance – $5949.99

 

Year 3

Investor A – VTSMX -25%, Return Account balance – $4177.42

Investor B – XOM -30% Return, Account balance – $4302.68

 

Year 4

Investor A – VTSMX 20%, Return Account balance – $5109.98

Investor B – XOM 25% Return, Account balance – $5527.69

 

Year 5

Investor A – VTSMX 3%, Return Account balance – $5360.34

Investor B – XOM 8% Return, Account balance – $6131.08

 

Starting in years after this all dividends are taken in cash and shares are sold to get the $125 needed

 

Year 6

Investor A – VTSMX 5%, Return Account balance – $5598.54

Investor B – XOM 10% Return, Account balance – $6743.97

 

Year 7

Investor A – VTSMX -15%, Return Account balance – $4733.41

Investor B – XOM -20% Return, Account balance – $5395.18

 

Year 8

Investor A – VTSMX 30%, Return Account balance – $6120.48

Investor B – XOM 35% Return, Account balance – $7283.49

 

Year 9

Investor A – VTSMX 3%, Return Account balance – $6270.15

Investor B – XOM -2% Return, Account balance – $7137.82

 

Year 10

Investor A – VTSMX 3%, Return Account balance – $5986.76

Investor B – XOM -2% Return, Account balance – $6495.42

 

Investor A had to start selling shares immediately in Year 6 to meet the $125 yearly demand.

Investor B never sold any shares because the dividend growth covered the $125 yearly demand.

 

End results:

Investor A – 19.74% Return

Investor B – 29.91% Return

 

This was not a scientific sketch, just an exercise to compare an index to a dividend growth stock. My post is not meant to be an “end all” of conversation nor an academic study, just posting my thought process for discussion and review (both good and bad).