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Will Microsoft buy Adobe? - I may just have the answer?

It's interesting that this New York Times' ("What a Microsoft-Adobe Merger Might Look Like") article suggests [Go to Item from Bits »], that a person with knowledge of the talks has explained, that Microsoft had indeed, previously courted Adobe several years ago.

The article tells us that the deal had (supposedly) never moved past informal talks as Microsoft had feared that the Justice Department would most likely block the acquisition on antitrust grounds.

This person across those previous talks [at the time], also points out that Microsoft (back then) was the dominant force in technology and Google and Apple were not the giants they are today.

The article quotes a professor of law of the University of Chicago, as saying (in a telephone interview), that the technology landscape was drastically different now and that an acquisition or partnership of this nature would likely not be halted.

NYT's DealBook mentions that both companies (Microsoft-Adobe), have several points of contention with Apple, but that they share one in common: The maker of iPhones and iPads won’t let [either of] their multimedia platforms onto the popular devices.

Adobe makes the ubiquitous Flash software, while Microsoft makes the rival Silverlight platform. Flash is now available on Google’s Android operating system and on Microsoft’s forthcoming Windows Phone 7. (As is pointed out in that NY Times' article, linked here)

dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/07/th.../

And contrary to what the lead-up article (into the story) does mention (that people with knowledge of the talks had told DealBook), in that, the talks appear not to have advanced beyond [what appears to have been?], a very preliminary discussion....I beg to differ....

Some may suggest that Microsoft WILL be very keen to 'bag' this one and (I feel), will probably, more than likely do so. This would then almost certainly leave Apple (generally) out in the cold when it comes to both Data and content. (See below, why this may be so)

An acquisition (of Adobe by Microsoft) would so obviously be seen by many as a very good move by Microsoft. (In that they would then likely or, be able to almost immediately jettison the Silverlight platform in favour of Flash.)

A move like that (I myself feel), with an 'across the board' use of Flash could then get to compliment (what would/will prove to be), an almost (even) bigger field in the future, being one that relates to ad serving.  (And that it will then get to present a 'one-stop shop' or, buying (of massive scale), across many global, multimedia Co platforms. (Think of Digital TV and newspapers/magazines, for starters)

Publishers and permissable Data collection: - A most important area that is currently contained within such a merge (of both the above) and already operating within another recently (& what is a very significant) acquired technology (in Omniture), that is now owned by Adobe.

Omniture/Adobe mentions: seekingalpha.com/user/36191/instablog/se...

It very much appears (to me) that Microsoft's AdECN is the foundation technology for what will no doubt be supporting the (and, soon to be) biggest RTB (both premium and secondary) marketplaces, on the web.

Add the digital TV, newspaper & magazine industries (almost across the board) and then consider the massive user base then provided, for both data collection and, that huge 'prize' of ad serving. (Not to mention, the likes of a Facebook!) - So, where does all this then put Apple's iPhones and iPads

(Note: From a secondary advertising/publisher marketplace POV, Looksmart shareholders have already been told [current report] that Looksmart's AdCenter was "built" in co-operation with Microsoft & IACI's ASK and that it's uniquely, a marketplace management platform having global reach or, "scale".)

In a previous InstaPost ["M&A's to consolidate display advertising growth phenomena .." seekingalpha.com/instablog/36191-looking...], the (or, my) strong suggestion was, that ....

The provision of a "generic" (or, a "one fits all"), data report, with [where] a micro payment is made or, coming in from off of all of the Looksmart AdCenter's global (being, from both impressions/paid clicks) "inter-connecting" - and, the management [of such] that is involved between Exchanges - And [that this] would be coming from off the Ad serving to [or, individual] publisher (via, an A P I connector), usage.

A 'mining' of Data arrangement (with publishers, following an Adobe/ Microsoft deal), would then seem a natural 'work-in' and would prove to be most beneficial not only to advertisers but also, for (all) publisher partners. (Providing them with a much more consistantly [reliable and an 'across the board' - unified], better means for Ad Optimisation)

The Tolman Geffs' AdAge.com article also makes mention of a much closer involvement of data/analytic companies such as Omniture/ Adobe, Acxiom, and Alliance Data Systems and I feel that those with any 'conflict of interest' (Omniture/Adobe is a 'likely'), may well be much better served in assisting the newly appointed LOOK analytics "Scientist" ..........and to then get their (a more constant) "whack" (or, a lion's 'share'), from within that $0.75c portion. It would surely be in their best interest to do so. IMHO.


(With safe, secure [& unified] 'collection' of reliable data concurrently across both [the global] Premium & Secondary marketplaces that will almost then (surely?) eliminate the need for many Data businesses [yes, those hungry 'middlemen'], operating within both of those marketplaces. Publishers will love that.)

More, on the need for unified and fully transparent (reliable) analytics & Data collection, here: "Looksmart hires TOP Scientist for AdCenter marketplace Analytics ." - seekingalpha.com/instablog/36191-looking...

Will Microsoft buy Adobe?

I've already told of what my answer to that question would be. The 'stakes' are high and with an ultimate enactment of ACAP, may well then see certain iPhones and iPads 'over-ripen' with a real possibility of them, both being left out on a limb. (All dressed up, with no-where to go?)

seekingalpha.com/user/36191/instablog/se...

LC

Disclosure: Long LOOK and very happy to be so, too..