In the recent days there appears to be skepticism related to Arena (NASDAQ:ARNA) Pharmaceuticals recently approved drug Belviq to treat obesity. The skepticism seems to be unfounded. It is great to hear opinions from everyone. The important take home one has to realize that all investments are speculative everyone has to decide for themselves when they want to buy a stock or sell a stock. Some key point to review.
(1) We now have the first drug in over a decade that can help address the issue of morbidity/mortality associated diseases that obesity causes in the US and worldwide.
(2) We all know that once the drug starts getting promoted by Eisai sales force revenues will generate exactly how much? from prior experience in the pharmaceutical industry in the first year ending 2013 Arena can easily generate between $200-$300 million plus it will receive milestone payments from Eisai. Once Belviq is available in EU and Switzerland by 2014 sales could easily hit $1.0 Billion.
(3) How a drug is promoted determines how much revenue is generated. Eisai is an excellent company they know what they are doing it was under their guidance and Arena efforts they got Belviq FDA approval. Getting a drug approved cost a lot of money and effort.
In conclusion one has to stay clam, be educated and let Eisai and Arena do their job in making Belviq successful. There is no sense in panicking on every piece of information right now because there in reality is no negative news on Belviq, Arena or Eisai. All the news coming out from Arena, Eisai on Belviq is positive. Even if the drug just made $300 million by end of 2013 is that not better than what they have now..
I have many years in pharmaceutical sales to let someone sway my educated experience in determining if Belviq will succeed or not. Belviq is already a success the question now is how much $$$ sales it will generate by end of 2012, 2013 and the future. It has years of patent protection so generic will not be an issue.
I will stay long on Arena.
12 Jul, 11:28 AMReplyEditLike0
What would you like to do now?
Disclosure: I am long ARNA.