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Barchart Morning Call 11/15


Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 39 mins ago

Overnight Developments

  • Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly higher by +0.15%. European stocks are down -0.27% while Asian stocks are trading lower across the board except for Japan, which is up +1.90%. Commodity prices are slightly lower by -0.15% with Dec crude oil up +0.06%, Dec gasoline +0.57%, Dec gold down -0.53%, Dec copper up +0.19%, and agriculture prices trading mostly lower. The dollar index is slightly higher by +0.10%. EUR/USD is up +0.15% and USD/JPY is sharply higher by +1.11%. Dec 10-year T-note prices are down -4.5 ticks.
  • Eurozone Q3 GDP fell -0.1% q/q (-0.4% q/q annualized), which was in line with market expectations but confirmed that the Eurozone economy remains in a recession. Eurozone GDP on a quarter-on-quarter basis has been either flat or negative for the last four consecutive quarters and has been negative for the last two quarters. Today' Q3 GDP was down -0.6% y/y. The market consensus is that the Eurozone will show slight growth of +0.2% in 2013 after a -0.5% decline this year.
  • The Eurozone Oct CPI report of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y was in line with market expectations. However, the Eurozone CPI rate of +2.5% remained above the ECB's target of slightly below +2.0%.
  • The UK Oct retail sales ex-fuel report of -0.7% m/m and +1.1% y/y was substantially weaker than market expectations of -0.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y. The report indicated continued economic threats in the UK and was bearish for GBP/USD.
  • Liberal Democratic Party (NYSE:LDP) chief Shinzo Abe, who is likely to become prime minister since the opposition LDP party is likely to win the upcoming general election, said today that the Bank of Japan should engage in unlimited easing until deflation is defeated. Those comments sparked fresh weakness today in the yen (strength in USD/JPY). Mr. Abe called for the BOJ to cut its benchmark rate to zero or to a negative level. Market Comments
    • Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly higher by +2.00 (+0.15%) as the market stabilizes after yesterday's sharp sell-off. U.S. stocks on Wednesday closed moderately lower on the lack of any progress thus far on the fiscal cliff and a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report, but found support from dovish FOMC minutes and positive late-Tuesday Cisco results: S&P 500 -1.39%, Dow Jones -1.45%, Nasdaq -1.17%. U.S. Oct retail sales fell -0.3%, which was slightly weaker than market expectations of -0.2%, while Oct retail sales ex-autos were unchanged and were weaker than market expectations of +0.2%.
    • Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 4.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices closed little changed despite FOMC minutes that suggested more bond buying may be forthcoming in early 2013 after Operation Twist expires: TYZ2 unch, FVZ2 -0.25.
    • The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.08 (+0.10%). EUR/USD is slightly higher by +0.0019 (+0.15%). USD/JPY is sharply higher by +0.89 (+1.11%) as the market expects the BOJ to be under increased pressure to ease if the LDP wins the upcoming election as expected, which would be bearish for the yen. USD/JPY The dollar index on Wednesday closed little changed while USD/JPY rallied sharply on yen weakness tied to the call for new elections in which the LDP party is likely to win and further boost the pressure on the BOJ for more asset purchases: Dollar index +0.02 (+0.03%), EUR/USD +0.0032 (+0.25%), USD/JPY +0.87 (+1.10%).
    • Dec WTI crude oil prices this morning are slightly higher by +0.05 (+0.06%) and Dec gasoline is up +0.0152 (+0.57%) Dec crude oil and gasoline prices closed moderately higher on Middle East tensions with Israel upping the ante with Hamas by killing its top military-wing commander and engaging in air attacks on militant targets in Gaza: +0.94 (+1.10%), RBZ2 +0.0252 (+0.95%). The market consensus for Thursday's DOE report is for a 2.5 mln bbl rise in crude oil inventories, an 800,000 bbl rise in gasoline inventories, a 500,000 bbl decline in distillate inventories, and a 0.7 point rise in the refinery utilization rate to 86.1%.
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit Today's U.S. Earnings Reports

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      Global Financial Calendar

      Thursday 11/15/12
      United States
      0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +20,000 to 375,000, previous -8,000 to 355,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +54,000 to 3.181 mln, previous -135,000 to 3.127 mln.
      0830 ET Oct CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Oct CPI ex food and energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
      0830 ET Nov Empire manufacturing index expected -1.8 to -8.0, Oct +4.2 to -6.2.
      0900 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the "Economic Outlook" at West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference.
      1000 ET Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected -2.7 to 2.0, Oct +7.6 to 5.7.
      1000 ET Q3 mortgage delinquencies, Q2 7.58%. Q3 mortgage foreclosures, Q2 4.27%.
      1030 ET DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
      1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Nov 21 (previous $13 billion).
      1320 ET Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on housing and the mortgage market in Atlanta.
      1445 ET Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at Stanford University's State of the West Symposium luncheon.
      1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
      1630 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Cato Institute's annual monetary policy conference.
      1830 ET NY Fed President Dudley speaks at NY Clearing House event.
      0000 ET Oct Tokyo condo sales, Sep -9.3% y/y.
      0200 ET German Q3 GDP expected +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y, Q2 +0.3% q/q and +1.0% y/y.
      0400 ET ECB's Nov monthly report.
      0500 ET Eurozone Oct CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Sep +0.7% m/m. Oct core CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Sep +1.5% y/y.
      0500 ET Eurozone Q3 GDP expected -0.1% q/q and -0.6% y/y, Q2 -0.2% q/q and -0.5% y/y.
      United Kingdom
      0430 ET UK Oct retail sales ex auto fuel expected -0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Oct retail sales with auto fuel expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +2.5% y/y. provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.