Barchart Morning Call
- Global stocks are higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.08% and June S&Ps up +6.60 points after an elite team of US Navy Seals stormed a secret compound in Pakistan and killed Osama Bin Laden. Crude oil is down over $2 a barrel and Treasuries are weaker, while the dollar index dropped to a fresh 2-3/4 year low and pushed gold prices to a record high. Silver prices plunged to a 2-week low after the CME raised margin requirements 13%, while copper sank to a 1-1/2 month low on concern that China's growth is slowing after its Apr purchasing managers' index unexpectedly fell. European stocks also received a boost after German and French Apr PMI manufacturing indexes were both revised upward.
- The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.57%, Australia +0.04%, South KOrea +1.71%, India -0.72%. Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Singapore were all closed for holiday. The Apr China PMI manufacturing index, released Saturday, unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 52.9, weaker than expectations of +0.5 to 53.9. South Korean stocks closed higher after Apr Korea exports climbed a record +26.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +23.7% y/y, and as construction companies and land developers gained when the government said it will give tax incentives to real-estate investment trusts that buy unsold housing, and will establish a bank to purchase soured loans owed by builders and developers. The Australian dollar climbed to a record $1.1011 on speculation increasing commodity prices will keep pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading up +6.60 points at a fresh contract high after President Obama said the US killed Osama Bin Laden. The US stock market last Friday settled higher on strong company earnings results along with strength in US personal spending: Dow Jones +0.37%, S&P 500 +0.23%, Nasdaq Composite +0.04%. The Dow and S&P 500 posted 2-3/4 year highs. Bullish factors included (1) impressive company earnings results as over 75% of the 298 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Apr 11 have beaten analysts' estimates, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar personal spending along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +0.6% versus expectations of +0.5% and Feb revised up to +0.9% from the originally reported +0.7%), which bodes well for the sustainability of the US economic expansion, and (3) strength in energy and commodity producer after a slump in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low prompted a broad-based rally in commodities.
- Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago purchasing managers index (-3.0 to 67.6 versus expectations of -2.4 to 68.2), (2) the weaker-than-expected Apr US University of Michigan consumer confidence (+0.2 to 69.8 versus expectations of +0.4 to 70.0), and (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said high levels of joblessness and home foreclosures are restraining the US recovery and putting people and communities at risk of being "left behind."
- Terex (NYSE:TEX) rose 1.8% in European trading after the US heavy-equipment manufacturer offered to buy Demag Cranes for about 883.9 million euros ($1.3 billion) to expand in the global harbor-crane market.
- TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) surged 20% in pre-market trading after the company settled all patent litigation with Dish Network nd EchoStar.
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1.5 ticks. T-note prices last Friday rallied after mid-morning and closed higher as weaker than expected consumer confidence and manufacturing data offset stock market strength and stronger-than-expected personal spending: TYM11 +6, FVM11 +3.7, EDU11 -0.5. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/4 month low of 3.280%. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago purchasing managers index (-3.0 to 67.6 versus expectations of -2.4 to 68.2), (2) the weaker-than-expected Apr US University of Michigan consumer confidence (+0.2 to 69.8 versus expectations of +0.4 to 70.0), and (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Mar PCE deflator (+1.8% y/y versus expectations of +1.9% y/y. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar personal spending along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +0.6% versus expectations of +0.5% and Feb revised up to +0.9% from the originally reported +0.7%), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Q1 employment cost index (+0.6% versus expectations of +0.5%), and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rose to a 2-3/4 year high.
- The dollar index this morning is weaker and fell to a fresh 2-3/4 year low in overnight trade with the dollar/yen +0.19 yen and the euro/dollar +0.36 cents. The dollar index last Friday tumbled to a 2-3/4 year low and settled lower as weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data undercut the dollar while an increase in Euro-Zone inflation boosted the euro to a 16-1/2 month high: Dollar Index -0.188, USDJPY -0.335, EURUSD -0.00142. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago purchasing mangers index, which indicates a slowdown in US manufacturing and is dollar negative, (2) early strength in the euro which rallied to a 16-1/2 month high against the dollar after the Apr Euro-Zone CPI estimate rose more than expected to a 2-1/2 year high, which bolsters speculation for additional ECB rate hikes, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Mar German retail sales, which is euro negative, and (2) the stronger-than-expected Mar US personal spending, which indicates strength in the US economy and is dollar supportive.
- June crude oil prices this morning are trading down sharply by -$1.91 a barrel and June gasoline is -5.50 cents per gallon. Crude oil plunged in overnight trade on speculation that the death of Osama Bin Laden may ease the risk of Middle East supply disruptions. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled higher due to a weak dollar and better-than-expected US consumer spending: CLM11 +$1.07, RBM11 +2.88. Nearest-futures May gasoline posted a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the continued slide in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low, which boosts investment demand in commodities, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar US personal spending, which bodes well for the sustainability of the economic expansion and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Mar German retail sales along with the slower than expected increase in South Korean Mar industrial production, which indicates a slowdown in Asian and European fuel demand, and (2) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago purchasing managers index, which signals reduced energy demand.
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) APC-Andarko Petroleum (BEST earnings consensus $0.58), ADP-Automatic Data Processing (0.85), LYB-LyondellBasell Industries NV (0.74), CHK-Chesapeake Energy (0.71), L-Loews (0.91), FE-FirstEnergy (0.75), BXP-Boston Properties (0.45), HIG-Hartford Financial Servics Group (0.95), HUM-Humana (1.46), EIX-Edison International (0.66), DISH-DISH Network (0.68), PFG-Principal Financial Group (0.71), DVA-Davita (0.95), CNA-CNA Financial (0.70), MEE-Massey Energy (0.54), BWP-Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (0.47), DNDN-Dendreon (-0.67).
Global Financial Calendar
|1000 ET||Mar construction spending expected +0.3%, Feb ?1.4%.|
|1000 ET||Apr ISM manufacturing index expected -1.6 to 59061, Mar ?0.2 to 61.2. Apr ISM prices paid expected -2.0 to 83.0, Mar +3.0 to 85.0.|
|1130 ET||Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.|
|0100 ET||Apr Japan vehicle sales, Mar -37.0% y/y.|
|0315 ET||Revised Apr French PMI manufacturing expected no change at 56.9.|
|0355 ET||Revised Apr German PMI manufacturing expected no change at 61.7.|
|0345 ET||ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio along with fellow ECB Council member Mario Draghi and EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn speak at a EU-sponsored conference in Brussels.|
|0500 ET||ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble speak at the inauguration of new Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in Frankfurt.|
|0830 ET||Mar Canada industrial product prices expected +0.3% m/m, Feb +0.7% m/m.|
|0830 ET||Mar Canada raw materials price index expected +3.5% m/m, Feb +1.8% m/m.|
|2100 ET||Apr China non-manufacturing PMI, Mar +16.1 to 60.2.|
|n/a||UK markets closed for May Day.|
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