Thursday, May 8th, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.03% and European stocks are up +0.54% after China Apr exports unexpectedly rose, a sign of improvement in global demand. Gains in European stocks were muted after German Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell and ahead of the outcome of today's ECB policy meeting. At the conclusion of its policy meeting today, the BOE as expected maintained its benchmark rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.93%, Hong Kong +0.42%, China -0.09%, Taiwan +0.42%, Australia +0.75%, Singapore +0.35%, South Korea +0.59%, India +0.09%. Asian markets found support on stronger-than-expected Chinese Apr exports along with dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the Fed will continue to support the U.S. economy. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.12%) is down -0.40%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.14%) is up +0.03%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.34%) is up +0.26%. July copper (HGN14 +0.03%) is down -0.05%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24%, just below Tuesday's 1-3/4 month high, amid speculation the ECB will refrain from announcing additional stimulus measures at today's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.06%) are down -2 ticks.
The China Apr trade balance widened to a +$18.46 billion surplus, more than expectations of a +$16.70 billion surplus. Apr exports unexpectedly increased by +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of -3.0% y/y, and Apr imports rose by +0.8% y/y, also better than expectations of -2.1% y/y.
German Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Mar industrial production climbed +3.0% y/y, less than expectations of +4.4% y/y.
UK Apr Halifax house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +8.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +9.1% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a -19,000 decline to 325,000, more than reversing last week's increase of +14,000 to 344,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -11,000 to 2.760 million, reversing part of last week's increase of +97,000 to 2.771 million. The Treasury today will sell $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $69 billion quarterly refunding operation.
There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Computer Sciences (consensus $1.04), Regeneron (2.27), ICE Group (2.61), Priceline (6.84), Apache (1.60), Symantec (0.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, and Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference on Wed-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Priceline Group (PCLN -3.13%) reported Q1 EPS of $7.81, well above consensus of $6.84.
Kindred Healthcare (KND +0.80%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 32 cents, below consensus of 33 cents.
JP Morgan Chase reported a 10.2% passive stake in Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN -5.96%) .
Transocean (RIG +0.63%) climbed more than 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.43, well above consensus of $1.02.
CF Industries (CF +0.55%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.51, below consensus of $4.54.
Avis Budget (CAR +0.28%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 16 cents, double consensus of 8 cents.
CenturyLink (CTL +0.55%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 66 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.
Caesar's (CZR +14.12%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$2.82, a much wider loss than consensus of -$1.15.
Prudential (PRU +0.99%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.40, higher than consensus of $2.26.
McDermott (MDR unch) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -21 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -12 cents.
Tesla (TSLA -2.86%) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 12 cents, better than consensus of 10 cents, but then said battery cell supply will constrain Q2 production.
21st Century Fox (FOXA -0.89%) reportED Q3 adjusted EPS OF 47 cents, stronger than consensus of 35 cents.
Roundy's (RNDY -2.86%) reported Q1 EPS of 1 cents, weaker than consensus of 3 cents.
Unum Group (UNM +1.57%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 87 cents, better than consensus of 85 cents.
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR -3.21%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.08, higher than consensus of 94 cents.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.56%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq -0.28%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced interest rate concerns after Fed Chair Yellen said that the Fed must continue to spur growth as employment and inflation indicators remain below the Fed's goals, and (2) upbeat earnings results with 75% of the 422 S&P 500 companies that have already reported Q1 earnings beating estimates. A negative factor was the -1.7% drop in U.S. Q2 non-farm productivity, the biggest decline in a year and weaker than expectations of -1.2%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.06%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher on comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a "high degree" of accommodation remains warranted: TYM4 +7.50, FVM4 +6.00. T-note prices also found support from strong foreign demand for the Treasury's $24 billion 10-year T-note auction as indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, bought 49.3% of the notes at auction, higher than the 12-auction average of 43.9%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.124 (-0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0033 (+0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. Dollar index +0.109 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.0017 (-0.12%), USD/JPY +0.218 (+0.21%). The main bullish factor for the dollar was weakness in EUR/USD on long liquidation ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting and after German Mar factory orders unexpectedly declined. Dollar strength was limited after Fed Chair Yellen said that a "high degree" of accommodation remains warranted.
Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.12%) this morning is down -40 cents (-0.40%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.14%) is up +0.0008 (+0.03%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with Jun crude at a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -1.395 million bbl decline in crude inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to a 5-1/3 yr low of 24.03 million bbl, and (2) the unexpected -1.781 mln bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories versus expectations for a +1.15 million bbl build. Closes: CLM4 +1.27 (+1.28%). RBM4 +0.0324 (+1.12%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/08/2014
|US||0800 ET||Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on Communication and Transparency in the Conduct of Systematic Monetary Policy to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.|
|0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -19,000 to 325,000, previous +14,000 to 344,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -13,000 to 2.758 million, previous +97,000 to 2.771 million.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|0925 ET||Chicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers welcoming remarks to the Chicago Feds Bank Regulation Conference.|
|0930 ET||Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies to the Senate Budget Committee on the economic outlook.|
|0930 ET||Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo delivers keynote address at to the Chicago Feds Bank Regulation Conference.|
|1300 ET||Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.|
|1400 ET||St. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers welcoming remarks at a St. Louis Fed conference title The Balance Sheets of Younger Americans: Is the American Dream at Risk?|
|GER||0200 ET||German Mar industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +4.8% y/y.|
|UK||0700 ET||BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.|
|EUR||0745 ET||ECB announces interest rate decision.|
|0830 ET||ECB President Mario Draghi holds monthly press conference following ECB meeting.|
|CHI||2130 ET||China Apr CPI expected +2.1% y/y, Mar +2.4% y/y. Apr PPI expected -1.9% y/y, Mar -2.3% y/y.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/08/2014
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Scripps Networks Interactive Inc||SNI US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.812|
|Cablevision Systems Corp||CVC US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.047|
|Precision Castparts Corp||PCP US||Bef-mkt||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||3.198|
|Teradata Corp||TDC US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.473|
|Health Care REIT Inc||HCN US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.982|
|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc||REGN US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||2.269|
|IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc||ICE US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||2.612|
|AES Corp/VA||AES US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.272|
|Windstream Holdings Inc||WIN US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.087|
|Ameren Corp||AEE US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.318|
|Priceline Group Inc/The||PCLN US||7:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||6.844|
|Priceline Group Inc/The||PCLN US||7:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|L Brands Inc||LB US||7:30||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Call||2014|
|Apache Corp||APA US||8:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||1.604|
|United Parcel Service Inc||UPS US||8:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Norfolk Southern Corp||NSC US||8:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Teradata Corp||TDC US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc||REGN US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc||ICE US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||8:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Windstream Holdings Inc||WIN US||8:30||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Unum Group||UNM US||9:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|NRG Energy Inc||NRG US||9:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Graham Holdings Co||GHC US||9:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|AES Corp/VA||AES US||9:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|QEP Resources Inc||QEP US||9:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Reynolds American Inc||RAI US||9:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Assurant Inc||AIZ US||9:00||Annual General Meeting|
|CVS Caremark Corp||CVS US||9:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Scripps Networks Interactive Inc||SNI US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Nucor Corp||NUE US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Cablevision Systems Corp||CVC US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Precision Castparts Corp||PCP US||10:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|Health Care REIT Inc||HCN US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Transocean Ltd||RIG US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|CF Industries Holdings Inc||CF US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Ameren Corp||AEE US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Kimco Realty Corp||KIM US||10:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Ecolab Inc||ECL US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Peabody Energy Corp||BTU US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Prudential Financial Inc||PRU US||11:00||Q1 2014 Earnings Call||Q1 2014|
|Monster Beverage Corp||MNST US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.49|
|CBS Corp||CBS US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2014 Earnings Release||Q1 2014||0.744|
|News Corp||NWSA US||Aft-mkt||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||0.03|
|Symantec Corp||SYMC US||Aft-mkt||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.417|
|Tenet Healthcare Corp||THC US||Annual General Meeting|
|Republic Services Inc||RSG US||Annual General Meeting|
|Gap Inc/The||GPS US||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|Costco Wholesale Corp||COST US||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|AMETEK Inc||AME US||Annual General Meeting|
|CH Robinson Worldwide Inc||CHRW US||Annual General Meeting|
|L Brands Inc||LB US||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|McDonald's Corp||MCD US||April 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|