Friday, December 12th, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.40%) this morning are down -0.53% at a 1-month low and European stocks are down -1.34% at a 3-week low as a drop in crude oil to a 5-1/3 year low undercuts energy producers. Chinese economic concerns also weighed on stocks after Nov China industrial output grew less than expected. The plunge in oil prices has also pressured the Russian ruble which plunged to a record low of 57.974 per dollar and has now lost over 30% of its value in the last 3 weeks. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.66%, Hong Kong -0.27%, China +0.32%, Taiwan +0.16%, Australia -0.22%, Singapore +0.16%, South Korea +0.37%, India -0.91%. Chinese stocks closed higher despite weaker-than-expected China Nov industrial production on speculation the government will boost its stimulus measures, while Japanese stocks rose ahead of Sunday's national elections in Japan where Prime Minister Abe's LDP party is expected to win in a landslide, which will allow him to push ahead with his fiscal policies. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -1.07%) is down -0.88% at a 5-1/3 year low after the IEA cut its global oil demand forecast for the fourth time in five months when it said global oil demand in 2015 will grow by 900,000 bpd, 230,000 bpd less than previously forecast, to 93.3 million bpd. Jan gasoline (RBF15 +0.02%) is up +0.24%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.24%) is down -0.16%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.39%) is up +0.45%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) is down -0.43%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.32%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.33%) are up +15.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high on carry-over support from a rally in European government bonds to record highs as the 10-year German bund yield fell to an all-time low of 0.636%.
China Nov new yuan loans were 852.7 billion yuan, more than expectations of 655.0 billion yuan. Nov aggregate financing, China's broadest measure of credit, rose +1.15 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 895.0 billion yuan and the most in 5 months.
China Nov industrial production rose +7.2% y/y, less than expectations of +7.5% y/y.
China Nov retail sales climbed +11.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.5% y/y.
Eurozone Q3 employment rose +0.2% q/q and +0.6% y/y with the +0.6% y/y increase the largest annual gain since Q2 of 2011.
Eurozone Oct industrial production rose +0.1% m/m, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis Oct industrial production rose +0.7% y/y, right on expectations.
The German Nov wholesale price index fell -0.7% m/m and -1.1% y/y, a faster pace of decline from Oct when wholesale prices fell -0.6% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
UK Oct construction output unexpectedly fell -2.2% m/m, when expectations were for a +0.7% m/m increase. On an annual basis Oct construction output rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +1.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's preliminary Dec U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to rise by +0.7 points to 89.5, adding to November's rise of +1.9 points to a 7-1/3 year high 88.8. Today's Nov final-demand PPI report is expected to fall to +1.4% y/y from +1.5% y/y in October. However, excluding food and energy, today's Nov final-demand core PPI is expected to be unchanged at +1.8% y/y from October. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Morgan Stanley (MS +0.03%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Buckingham.
Costco (COST +0.83%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Janney Capital.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW +3.00%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $8.75-$8.80, below consensus of $8.81, and also lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $10.65-$10.85, below consensus of $10.87.
Mindray Medical (MR -0.28%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Avery Dennison (AVY +0.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Topeka.
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP +14.21%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Lazard (LAZ -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Keefe Bruyette.
CI Investments reported a 5.16% passive stake in Forest City (FCE.A -0.24%) .
United Technologies (UTX +0.48%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to approximately $6.80, below consensus of $6.87, and also lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $7.00-$7.20, less than consensus of $7.27.
Nordson (NDSN +1.58%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.15, higher than consensus of $1.13.
Quiksilver (ZQK -2.63%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -29 cents, a much bigger loss than consensus of -11 cents.
Esterline (ESL +0.38%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.82, less than consensus of $1.85.
Adobe (ADBE -0.16%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, higher than consensus of 30 cents.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.40%) this morning are down -10.75 points (-0.53%) at a 1-month low. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.45%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.51%. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.7% increase in U.S. Nov retail sales, stronger than expectations of +0.4% and the most in 8 months, (2) the unexpected -3,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, better than expectations of no change, and (3) slack price pressures after U.S. Nov import prices fell -1.5% m/m and -2.3% y/y, the fastest pace of decline in 1-1/2 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.33%) this morning are yp +15.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday fell back from a 1-week high and closed lower: TYH5 -7.00, FVH5 -6.00. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov retail sales, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks rallied sharply. Losses were limited on carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to an all-time high.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) this morning is down -0.377 (-0.43%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0040 (+0.32%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.32 (-0.27%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.392 (+0.44%), EUR/USD -0.00366 (-0.29%), USD/JPY +0.83 (+0.70%). Supportive factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov retail sales, which may bring the Fed closer to raising interest rates, (2) weakness in the yen after USD/JPY recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher after the Kyodo News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Abe's party may win more than 300 of 475 lower house seats in the Dec 14 election, which would give Abe a clear mandate to continue his yen-negative fiscal policies.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -1.07%) this morning is down -53 cents (-0.88%) at a new 5-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF15 +0.02%) is up +0.0039 (+0.24%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline prices Thursday closed lower with Jan crude at a 5-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline at a 5-year low. Closes: CLF5 -2.88 (-4.51%), RBF5 -0.0781 (-4.53%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar, and (2) comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi who said Saudi Arabia will not cut oil production, "the market will correct itself." A bullish factor was the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov retail sales, which signals economic strength that is positive for fuel demand.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/12/2014
|US||0830 ET||Nov final-demand PPI expected -0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Nov final-demand PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Oct +0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y.|
|0955 ET||Preliminary Dec U.S. consumer confidence (University of Michigan) expected +0.7 to 89.5, Nov +1.9 to 88.8.|
|CHI||0030 ET||China Nov industrial production expected +7.5% y/y, Oct +7.7% y/y|
|0030 ET||China Nov retail sales expected +11.5% y/y, Oct +11.5% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Oct construction output expected +0.7% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Sep +1.8% m/m and +3.5% y/y.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Oct industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Sep +0.6% m/m and +0.6% y/y.|
|0500 ET||Eurozone Q3 employment, Q2 +0.2% q/q and +0.4% y/y.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/12/2014
|WW Grainger Inc||GWW US||8:00||November 2014 Sales and Revenue Call||2014|
|WW Grainger Inc||GWW US||8:00||November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release||2014|
|Principal Financial Group Inc||PFG US||8:00||Roadshow - Europe - Day 2||Y 2014|
|MetLife Inc||MET US||8:00||Business Update Call|
|Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc||ALNY US||8:00||R&D Day||Y 2014|
|Nordson Corp||NDSN US||8:30||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|Centene Corp||CNC US||8:30||Investor Meeting||Y 2014|
|Nu Skin Enterprises Inc||NUS US||12:00||Investor Day||Y 2014|
|Twenty-First Century Fox Inc||FOXA US||U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Exodus: Gods and Kings""|
|Palo Alto Networks Inc||PANW US||Annual General Meeting|