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BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/4

|Includes: ADDDF, BP, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), COO, CR, CTS, DIS, DLTR, ESL, GPS, IFNNY, PAY, TNK, UTIW

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, September 4th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.96%) are down -1.03% and European stocks are down -2.23% on anxiety ahead of U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls where a stronger-than-expected report may bolster the case for a Fed rate hike as soon as this month. A larger-than-expected decline in German Jul factory orders is also fueling selling in European stocks. The markets will also be alert to the meeting of central bankers and finance ministers at this weekend's G-20meeting in Ankara, Turkey. Emerging stocks closed lower on U.S. rate hike concerns along with worries that China will pare back support for equities following this week's military parade. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -2.15%, Hong Kong -0.45%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan -1.18%, Australia +0.25%, Singapore -1.47%, South Korea -1.09%, India -2.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index closed down over 2% and posted a 6-3/4 month low on concern Chinese stocks will continue their declines when trading resumes Monday after this week's holidays.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.15%) is down -0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.76% at a 1-weklow as the slide in stock prices boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.26%) are up +11.5 ticks at a 1-week high as weakness in equities boosts the safe-haven demand of government debt.

In a draft communique prepared ahead of this weekend's G-20 meeting in Ankara, Turkey, global central bankers and finance ministers expressed concern about the potential disruption a Fed rate increase may due to emerging markets as the draft said "In line with the improving economic outlook, monetary policy tightening is more likely in some advanced economies, which may remain one of the main sources of uncertainty in financial markets."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug non-farm payrolls expected +219,000, Jul +215,000) and the Aug unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 5.2%, Jul unch at 5.3%), (2) a speech by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker before the Retail Merchants Association in Richmond, VA, during their Economic Forecast Breakfast titled "The Case Against Further Delay," and (3) the first day of the 2-day G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting Ankara, Turkey.

None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Caterpillar (CAT -2.17%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.

British Petroleum (BP +0.65%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Ciena (CIEN +2.18%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.

Dollar Tree (DLTR -0.87%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Teekay Tankers (TNK +3.38%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Sell' at UBS.

Infineon (IFNNY +0.57%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.

Adidas (ADDDY) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.

Gabelli reported an 11.27% stake in CTS Corporation (CTS +0.43%) .

Esterline (ESL +0.38%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.33, weaker than consensus of $1.42 and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $4.35-$4.45, below consensus of $4.71.

UTi Worldwide (UTIW -4.11%) reported a Q2 EPS loss of -70 cents, a much bigger loss than consensus of -5 cents.

The Gap (GPS +1.13%) reported August Same-Store-Sales were down 2% y/y and August revenue of $1.20 billion was below the $1.23 billion from last year.

Cooper Companies (COO -0.67%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.97, higher than consensus of $1.95.

Verifone (PAY +0.58%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 46 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $1.82-$1.83, below consensus of $1.85.

Gamco reported a 7.15% stake in Crane (CR +0.14%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.96%) this morning are down -20.00 points (-1.03%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones +0.14%, Nasdaq-0.51%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed slightly higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S Aug ISM non-manufacturing index of -1.3 to 59.0 (vs expectations of -2.1 to 58.2) and the ECB's move to raise its purchase limit of a country's debt to 33% from 25%, which could pave the way for the ECB to eventually enlarge or extend its QE program. Stocks saw some weakness from the +12,000 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims (vs expectations of +4,000) and long liquidation ahead of Friday's monthly U.S. payrolls report.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.26%) this morning are up +11.5 ticks at a 1-week high. Thursday's closes: TYZ5 +7.50, FVZ5 +5.75. Dec T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims and on carryover support from a rally in German bunds after the ECB cut its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for 2015 through 2017 and expanded the potential size of its QE program.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.15%) this morning is down -0.124 (-0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0014 (+0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.91 (-0.76%) at a 1-week low. Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.577 (+0.60%), EUR/USD -0.0104 (-0.93%), USD/JPY -0.26 (-0.22%). The dollar index on Thursday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher on a decline in EUR/USD to a 2-week low after the ECB cut its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for 2015 through 2017 and expanded the potential size of its QE program. The dollar also found support on the stronger-than-expected Aug ISM non-manufacturing report.

Oct crude oil (CLV15 -0.71%) this morning is down -32 cents (-0.68%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -1.07%) is down -0.0141 (-0.98%). Thursday's closes: CLV5 +0.50 (+1.08%), RBV5 +0.0053 (+0.37%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed higher on the rally in stocks and on the ECB's move to potentially expand its QE program.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/04/2015

US 0810 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addresses the Retail Merchants Association in Richmond, VA, during their Economic Forecast Breakfast in a speech titled The Case Against Further Delay.
  0830 ET Aug non-farm payrolls expected +219,000, Jul +215,000. Aug private payrolls expected +205,000, Jul +210,000. Aug manufacturing payrolls expected +5,000, Jul +15,000. Aug unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.2%, Jul unch at 5.3%.
  0830 ET Aug average hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Aug average weekly hours all employees expected -0.1 to 34.5 hours, Jul 34.6 hours.
  n/a G-20 finance ministers and central bankers hold 2-day meeting in Ankara, Turkey.
GER 0200 ET German Jul factory orders expected -0.6% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Jun +2.0% m/m and +7.2% y/y.
  0330 ET German Markit construction PMI, Jul 50.6.
UK 0430 ET UK Aug new car registrations, Jul +3.2% y/y.
  0430 ET BOE quarterly inflation expectations.
EUR 0500 ET Revised Eurozone Q2 GDP, previous +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/04/2015

Company Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Walt Disney Co/The DIS US   Disney Unveils New Star Wars" Toy Line"