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MORNING CALL 2/16

|Includes: A, The ADT Corporation (ADT), ANH, AZO, BTU, CERN, DELL, DVN, ESRX, ET, FCX, FE, FLO, FTI, GPC, GRPN, GS, HRL, PSA, SHPG, TGNA, USG, VNO, WSBF, XEC, ZTS

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) are up +1.20% at a 1-week high, led by a rally in energy producers, with ConocoPhilips and Marathon Oil up at least 2% in pre-market trading as crude oil gains +0.95%. A rally in bank stocks is also pushing stock index futures higher with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all up over 1% in pre-market trading. European stocks are down -0.28%, led by weakness in commodity producers, as Anglo American Plc dropped over 6% after the company said it would sell more mines and raise its debt-reduction target following a fourth year of losses. European stocks were also undercut after German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth fell to the lowest in 16 months. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.20%, Hong Kong +1.08%, China +3.29%, Taiwan +1.80%, Australia +1.37%, Singapore +1.41%, South Korea +1.37%, India -1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Chinese data showed a record jump in new credit last month. Also, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday that China will take decisive actions if needed amid recent global economic headwinds and slumping equity markets.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) is up +0.69%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.21%) are down -4.5 ticks.

The German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -9.2 to 1.0, stronger than expectations of -10.2 to 0, but still the lowest in 16 months.

China Jan new yuan loans surged by a record 2.51 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.90 trillion yuan. Jan aggregate financing, the broadest measure of new credit, jumped a record +3.42 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +2.20 trillion yuan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb Empire manufacturing index (expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37), (2) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker's speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware's Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship, and (3) Feb NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60).

There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Agilent Technologies (consensus $0.43), Genuine Parts (1.01), Hormel Foods (0.36), Pulbic Storage (2.42), FirstEnergy (0.57).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Investor Conference on Tue.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

ADT Corp. (ADT +1.90%) surged over 40% in pre-market trading after it agreed to be purchased by Apollo Global affiliates for $6.9 billion or $42 a share.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX +13.09%) jumped almost 8% in pre-market trading after it agreed to sell an additional stake n one of its biggest mines to Sumitomo Metal Mining for $1 billion.

Goldman Sachs (GS +3.87%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.

Hormel Foods (HRL -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 43 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.

Flowers Foods (FLO -6.54%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

AutoZone (AZO +2.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Wedbush.

Peabody Energy (BTU +2.97%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

EMC Corp. (EMC -0.12%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Baupost Group LLC Holdings reported that it purchased 29.2 million shares in the company.

USG Corp. (USG +7.05%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after Appaloosa Management LP Holdings said it sold its stake in USG.

Groupon (GRPN +29.02%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after BABA reported a 5.6% stake in the company.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP +8.38%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after Perry Corporation Holdings and Appaloosa Management LP Holdings reported new stakes in the company.

Waterstone Financial (WSBF +0.81%) CFO Allan Hosack will resign effective March 1 and Mark Gerke was named interim CFO.

Anworth Mortgage (ANH +0.24%) reported Q4 core EPS of 15 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) this morning are up +22.25 points (+1.20%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +1.95%, Dow Jones +2.00%, Nasdaq +1.44%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply higher on stronger-than-expected U.S. Jan retail sales (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unchanged ex autos), and after New York Fed President Dudley said that key sectors of the U.S. economy "seem to be in good shape." Another bullish factor for stocks was the sharp 12% rally in crude oil which supported gains in energy stocks.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.21%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH6 -31.00, FVH6 -15.75. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower after U.S. Jan retail sales rose more than expected (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unch ex autos), and after stocks rallied sharply, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) this morning is up +0.662 (+0.69%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0003 (+0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.55(-0.48%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.378 (+0.40%), EUR/USD -0.0067 (-0.59%), USD/JPY +0.83 (+0.74%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on strength in U.S. Jan retail sales along with weakness in EUR/USD after Dec industrial production unexpectedly fell by the most in 16 months (-1.0% m/m vs. expectations of +0.3% m/m).

Mar WTI crude (CLH16 +2.24%) this morning is up +28 cents (+0.95%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -0.57%) is down -0.0148 (-1.42%). Friday's closes: CLH6 +3.23 (+12.32%), RBH6 +0.0914 (+9.71%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled sharply higher on short-covering after U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that oil "prices are not appropriate" and that producers are ready to work together and won't make production cuts unless there is complete cooperation. Energy prices strengthened further after data from Baker Hughes showed that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 28 in the week ended Feb 12 to 439, a 6-year low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/16/2016

US 0830 ET Feb Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37.
  0830 ET Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker delivers a speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delawares Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.
  1000 ET Feb NAHB housing market index expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60.
  1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
EUR 0200 ET Eurozone Jan new car registrations, Dec +16.6% y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK Jan CPI expected -0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y. Jan core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Dec +1.4% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Jan RPI expected -0.6% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Jan RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.4% y/y, Dec +1.3% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Jan PPI input prices expected -1.3% m/m and -8.7% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -10.8% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Jan PPI output prices expected -0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and -1.2% y/y. Jan PPI output core expected +0.1% m/m and unch y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
  0430 ET UK Dec ONS house prices, Nov +7.7% y/y.
GER 0500 ET German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -10.2 to 0, Jan 10.2. Feb ZEW survey current situation expected -4.7to 55.0, Jan 59.7.
JPN 1850 ET Japan Dec machine orders expected +4.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Nov -14.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/16/2016

Company Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
TEGNA Inc TGNA US Bef-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.457
Genuine Parts Co GPC US Bef-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 1.013
Hormel Foods Corp HRL US Bef-mkt Q1 2016 Earnings Release Q1 2016 0.348
Zoetis Inc ZTS US Bef-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.385
Baxalta Inc BXLT US Bef-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.555
Public Storage PSA US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 2.421
Vornado Realty Trust VNO US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 1.303
Cerner Corp CERN US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.568
Express Scripts Holding Co ESRX US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 1.556
FirstEnergy Corp FE US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.568
Devon Energy Corp DVN US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.707
Agilent Technologies Inc A US Aft-mkt Q1 2016 Earnings Release Q1 2016 0.433
FMC Technologies Inc FTI US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 0.483
Cimarex Energy Co XEC US Aft-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 -0.221