Long Only, Momentum, Portfolio Strategy
Contributor Since 2009
Jim Van Meerten writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended post-baccalaureate and graduate courses in Business Administration, Quantitative Math, and Education at Florida Atlantic University, Georgia State University and University of North Carolina at Charlotte. In the past he has been an accountant, attorney, adjunct professor in Business Law, Accounting and Internal Auditing, financial advisor, supervisory principal, and compliance officer. He also passed the Georgia CPA Exam, the Certified Internal Auditor Exam, and the FINRA Series 7, 24 and 9/10 exams.He is presently also a contributor on MSN Top Stocks Blog, Motley Fool and is a member of the M100 on Marketocracy, an elete honor chosen by the editors of Marketocracy as being in the top 100 portfolio managers of over 100,000 portfoiios they review. He would enjoy hearing your comments at JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Thursday, May 12th, 2016
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.57%) are up +0.60% and European stocks are up +0.95% as a +0.89% rally in Jun WTI crude oil (CLM16 +0.82%) to a 1-1/2 week high lifts energy producing stocks. Crude oil is higher after the IEA cut its global crude oil surplus estimate for the first half of 2016 to 1.3 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd forecast last month, citing robust demand in India and other emerging markets. European stocks rose despite an unexpected decline in Eurozone Mar industrial production. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.41%, Hong Kong -0.70%, China -0.04%, Taiwan-0.34%, Australia -0.24%, Singapore +0.46%, South Korea -0.30%, India +0.75%. Gains in Japanese stocks were held back by a -1.4% drop in Toyota after the automaker forecast its yearly profit will probably decline for the first time in 5 years.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.17%) are down -7.5 ticks.
As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds following today's policy meeting. The BOE also cut its UK 2016 GDP forecast to 2.0% from a 2.2% estimate in Feb, citing uncertainty regarding next month's referendum on whether the UK will remain in the European Union.
Eurozone Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -4,000 to 270,000, previous +17,000 to 274,000) and continuing claims (expected -1,000 to 2.120 million, previous -8,000 to 2.121 million), (2) Apr import price index (expected +0.6% m/m and -5.4% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and-6.2% y/y), (3) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on monetary policy and inflation dynamics at an event in Reichenau Island, Germany, (4) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers luncheon speech to the Great Concord Chamber in Concord, NH, (5) the Treasury auction of $15 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (6) Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the U.S. economy to business and community leaders in Albuquerque, NM, and (7) USDA weekly Export Sales.
There are 6 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kohl's (consensus $0.37), Perrigo (1.72), Ralph Lauren (0.83), NVIDIA (0.41), Nordstrom (0.46), Symantec (0.22).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Oil & Gas Conference on Thu, Morgan Stanley Refining Corporate Access Day on Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Investor Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Jack in the Box (JACK -5.24%) jumped 11% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted operating EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 70 cents.
Berry Plastics Group (BERY +2.32%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Weight Watchers International (WTW -0.88%) climbed over 1% in after-hours trading after Oprah Winfrey was elected to a 2-year term on the company's board.
Janus Capital Group (JNS -2.05%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outpeform' at Wells Fargo Securities.
St. Jude Medical (STJ +0.23%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Kohl's (KSS -6.02%) slid over 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, below consensus of 37 cents.
Owens-Illinois (OI +0.57%) was rated a new 'Sell' by Goldman Sachs.
SINA Corp/China (SINA +0.67%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q1 adjusted EPS loss of -4 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -3 cents.
Weibo (WB -0.43%) rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 4 cents.
Spin Master (SNMSF +2.40%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, double consensus of 6 cents.
CA Inc. (CA -0.63%) gained 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted continuing operations EPS of 60 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents, and said it sees fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS continuing operation of $2.51-$2.56, above consensus of $2.49.
Loxo Oncology (LOXO -5.36%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it announced a public equity offering. Price, volume and terms have yet to be announced.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.57%) this morning are up +12.25 points (+0.60%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.96%, Dow Jones -1.21%, Nasdaq-0.93%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed lower on carryover weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern about the health of the European banking sector after ABN Amro Group NV reported a -13% decline in Q1 profits. U.S. stocks were also undercut by weakness in U.S. retail stocks led by a -15% plunge in Macy's, the largest U.S department store company, after it reported weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue and cut its profit forecast for this year.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.17%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYM6 +4.00, FVM6 +0.25. Jun T-notes on Wednesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the weakness in stocks and on strong demand for the Treasury's $23 billion 10-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, purchased a record 73.5% of the auction, higher than the 12-auction average of 60.7%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) this morning is up +0.244 (+0.26%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0031 (-0.27%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.79 (+0.73%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.467 (-0.50%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.47%), USD/JPY -0.86 (-0.79%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on strength in the currencies of the oil-exporting countries of Canada and Russia after the price of crude oil jumped +3%.
June WTI crude oil (CLM16 +0.82%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.89%) at a 1-1/2 week high. June gasoline (RBM16 -0.13%) is up +0.0002 (+0.01%). Wednesday's closes: CLM6 +1.33 (+2.98%), RBM6 +0.0849 (+5.71%). Jun crude and gasoline on Wednesday posted 1-week highs and closed higher on a weaker dollar, the unexpected -3.41 million bbl decline in EIA crude inventories (vs expectations of +750,000 bbl), and the -0.3%drop in U.S. crude output in the week ended May 6 to a 1-1/2 year low of 8.802 million bpd.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/12/2016
|US||0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 270,000, previous +17,000 to 274,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-1,000 to 2.120 million, previous -8,000 to 2.121 million.|
|0830 ET||Apr import price index expected +0.6% m/m and -5.4% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and -6.2% y/y.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|1100 ET||Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on monetary policy and inflation dynamics at an event in Reichenau Island, Germany.|
|1100 ET||Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned May 19.|
|1145 ET||Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers luncheon speech to the Great Concord Chamber in Concord, NH.|
|1300 ET||Treasury auctions $15 billion 30-year T-bonds.|
|1330 ET||Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the U.S. economy to business and community leaders in Albuquerque, NM.|
|JPN||0030 ET||Japan Apr bankruptcies, Mar -13.15% y/y.|
|0100 ET||Japan Apr eco-watchers survey current expected -1.4 to 44.0, Mar 45.4. Apr eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.5 to 46.2, Mar 46.7.|
|GER||0200 ET||German Apr wholesale price index, Mar +0.3% m/m and -2.6% y/y.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Mar industrial production expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Feb -0.8% m/m and +0.8% y/y.|
|UK||0700 ET||BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion-pound asset purchase target.|
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/12/2016
|Kohl's Corp||KSS US||Bef-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 2017||0.37|
|Perrigo Co PLC||PRGO US||6:00||Q1 2016 Earnings Release||Q1 2016||1.721|
|WW Grainger Inc||GWW US||8:00||April 2016 Sales and Revenue Call||2016|
|WW Grainger Inc||GWW US||8:00||April 2016 Sales and Revenue Release||2016|
|Perrigo Co PLC||PRGO US||8:00||Q1 2016 Earnings Call||Q1 2016|
|Principal Financial Group Inc||PFG US||8:00||Roadshow - Paris||Y 2016|
|Ralph Lauren Corp||RL US||8:00||Q4 2016 Earnings Release||Q4 2016||0.833|
|Ford Motor Co||F US||8:30||Annual General Meeting|
|Kohl's Corp||KSS US||8:30||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 2017|
|E*TRADE Financial Corp||ETFC US||8:30||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Ralph Lauren Corp||RL US||9:00||Q4 2016 Earnings Call||Q4 2016|
|EMC Corp/MA||EMC US||10:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Owens-Illinois Inc||OI US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Cimarex Energy Co||XEC US||10:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Discover Financial Services||DFS US||10:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Apache Corp||APA US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Exxon Mobil Corp||XOM US||11:00||Executive Compensation Update Call|
|Torchmark Corp||TMK US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Transocean Ltd||RIG US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Valero Energy Corp||VLO US||11:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|CF Industries Holdings Inc||CF US||11:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Union Pacific Corp||UNP US||13:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Invesco Ltd||IVZ US||13:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Edwards Lifesciences Corp||EW US||13:00||Annual General Meeting|
|NVIDIA Corp||NVDA US||16:20||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 2017||0.407|
|Nordstrom Inc||JWN US||16:45||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 2017|
|Symantec Corp||SYMC US||17:00||Q4 2016 Earnings Call||Q4 2016|
|NVIDIA Corp||NVDA US||17:00||Q1 2017 Earnings Call||Q1 2017|
|Nordstrom Inc||JWN US||Aft-mkt||Q1 2017 Earnings Release||Q1 2017||0.456|
|Symantec Corp||SYMC US||Aft-mkt||Q4 2016 Earnings Release||Q4 2016||0.22|
|Dow Chemical Co/The||DOW US||Annual General Meeting|
|Host Hotels & Resorts Inc||HST US||Annual General Meeting|
|Norfolk Southern Corp||NSC US||Annual General Meeting - Proxy Fight|
|UDR Inc||UDR US||Annual General Meeting|
|AutoNation Inc||AN US||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Waste Management Inc||WM US||Annual General Meeting|
|Western Union Co/The||WU US||Annual General Meeting|
|CH Robinson Worldwide Inc||CHRW US||Annual General Meeting|
|Sempra Energy||SRE US||Annual General Meeting|
|Assurant Inc||AIZ US||Annual General Meeting|
|Zoetis Inc||ZTS US||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|